While electoral races in advanced democracies usually center around party ideologies and policies, in Nigeria, they are often more about individual interests. This is not to say that political parties in Nigeria do not play a significant role in elections. However, the lines of distinction are so permeable, and party structures so weak, that politicians can easily switch affiliations and take over party structures to serve their own interests. Many past elections have reflected this, and the upcoming Ondo governorship election may not be an exception.
According to information from the Independent National Electoral Commission, 17 parties will be on the ballot on November 16. This may seem like a wide array of choices, but a closer look at Nigeria’s electoral dynamics reveals that only a handful of options are realistically available to the electorate. Two parties, the APC and PDP, effectively dominate. Occasionally, disgruntled members use other parties to achieve their goals. Although some smaller parties exist as “third-force” options, they are often proxy extensions of the APC and PDP. The Ondo election reflects this trend.
Depending on whom you ask, the serious contenders in the election range from two to four or five. Most would agree that the race is primarily between APC candidate and incumbent governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and PDP candidate Agboola Ajayi. However, history suggests that dismissing other parties, especially the Labour Party, may be a mistake. In 2007, former governor Olusegun Mimiko won on the Labour Party ticket, demonstrating its potential influence.
With options already presented to Ondo citizens, they must choose on November 16. But how informed will their choice be? How familiar are they with the candidates they may support? To assist, we take a closer look at the candidates from the three parties analysts consider the leading contenders, starting with the incumbent governor and APC candidate, Mr. Lucky Aiyedatiwa.
Mr. Aiyedatiwa exemplifies the Yorùbá saying that names reflect destiny. He was selected from relative obscurity as Rotimi Akeredolu’s running mate in 2020 after Akeredolu’s fallout with his first-term deputy and current PDP candidate, Agboola Ajayi. Aiyedatiwa might have completed his term as deputy governor and faded into obscurity, a common fate for deputies in Nigeria. But fate intervened, and he assumed office as governor after Akeredolu’s death—a scenario reminiscent of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s rise. Like Jonathan, Aiyedatiwa overcame internal party opposition to claim the governorship ticket.
Before becoming Akeredolu’s running mate in 2020, Aiyedatiwa had not held an elective office. He previously ran unsuccessfully for the Ilaje/Ese-Odo Federal Constituency seat in 2015 and later served as Ondo State’s representative on the Niger Delta Development Commission Board from 2018 to 2019. The Ilaje-born politician studied Business Administration at Lagos State College of Education and the University of Ibadan.
iyedatiwa’s main opponent, Agboola Ajayi, is a lawyer and grassroots politician from Ese-Odo Local Government, the same Federal Constituency as Aiyedatiwa. Ajayi began his political career at the local level, holding roles such as Supervisor for Agriculture and Local Government Chairman in Ese-Odo. Elected to the House of Representatives in 2007, he served as chairman of the NDDC Committee. Ahead of the 2016 Ondo governorship election, he defected from the PDP to the APC and served as Akeredolu’s running mate. However, like many politically ambitious deputy governors, Ajayi’s relationship with Akeredolu soured, leading to his defection back to the PDP, where he unsuccessfully sought the governorship ticket before contesting on the Zenith Labour Party platform. Ajayi is now the PDP candidate after winning the primary election, where he faced candidates like Chief Sola Nehemiah Ebiseni.
Ebiseni, a veteran of multiple party affiliations, was previously the Labour Party’s southwest coordinator in the last presidential election. After returning to the PDP and contesting the governorship primaries, he returned to the Labour Party and claimed its governorship ticket after a Federal High Court ruled in his favor. A lawyer and factional secretary of the pan-Yoruba group Afenifere, Ebiseni has served as commissioner in Ondo State and as chairman of the state’s Law Commission.
Other contenders include Dr. Abass Mimiko of the Zenith Labour Party, younger brother of former governor Segun Mimiko. While Abass represents the ZLP, his older brother remains with the PDP. The NNPP also fields a candidate, former OSOPADEC chairman Hon. Gbenga Edema, who joined the NNPP after previously aspiring within the APC.
In addition to these main contenders, Ondo voters will have 12 other options when they head to the polls on November 16.
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