Kemi Badenoch has begun to establish herself as a political force Labour can no longer ignore, even as Reform UK continues to surge across the country.
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The local election results were painful for the Conservatives. The party lost more than 400 councillors and Reform UK made strong gains in several parts of Britain. Nigel Farage’s party has shown it is no longer just a protest movement. It is now a serious threat to both Labour and the Tories.
But the results also told another story. The Conservatives were badly damaged, but they were not wiped out. In parts of London and the South East, they showed signs of recovery. Those results have given Tory supporters hope that the so-called “Kemi effect” may be starting to work.
For Labour, this is a warning. The party is already under pressure from Reform UK in many working-class areas. But Badenoch’s Conservatives are now showing they can still hurt Labour in places where local services, council tax, community safety and trust matter to voters.
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North London offered some of the clearest signs of a Tory fightback. In Barnet, Labour lost 10 seats while the Conservatives gained nine. The result left the council under no overall control. In Harrow, the Conservatives returned 42 councillors, increasing their number by 11, while Labour’s total fell sharply.
Tory figures believe Badenoch’s direct stance on antisemitism helped the party in areas with large Jewish communities, including Barnet and Harrow. Conservative sources said voters responded to her clear language on hate marches, antisemitism and support for Israel.
One newly elected Tory councillor told Jewish News that Badenoch had made a “positive impact” on the vote in Barnet. The councillor said local issues mattered, but Badenoch’s position on antisemitism had also played an important role for many Jewish voters.
The Conservatives also found comfort in other parts of London. They won back Westminster, a symbolic victory in the heart of the capital. They also became the largest party in Wandsworth, a council long linked with the Tory record on low taxes and local management before Labour took it in 2022.
These wins do not erase the wider damage. The Conservatives still suffered heavy losses, and Reform UK remains the bigger national story. Farage’s party has built momentum and is now challenging the old two-party system. The right of British politics is split, and the Tories face a hard fight to win back voters who have moved to Reform.
Even so, Badenoch has shown that the Conservatives still have routes back. Her party’s message on lower taxes, local control and public services still appears to work in some areas. In places such as Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet and Harrow, voters who had turned to Labour seem willing to look again at the Tories.
That matters because Labour’s problem is no longer only Reform UK. If Farage is taking votes in Labour’s old heartlands, Badenoch may be able to challenge Labour in London and suburban seats where the Conservatives still have strong local machines.
The election results do not prove that a Tory revival is underway. But they do show that Badenoch has survived her first major test better than some expected. She has given Conservatives a reason to believe the party still has life after defeat.
Reform may have dominated the local elections, but Badenoch has shown Labour that the Conservatives are still alive. That makes the next political battle far less simple than it looked.
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