The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio will rise to 33.1% by 2027, a period when the country is expected to hold general elections.
Although the figure represents a downward revision from the 35.3% estimate released in October, it is still higher than the 32.3% projected for 2026.
The projection is contained in the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report, launched on Wednesday in Washington DC during the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.
Earlier, Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) disclosed that the country’s total public debt rose to N159.27 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The figure increased by N5.98 trillion from N153.29 trillion recorded in the third quarter and by N14.6 trillion compared to N144.67 trillion in the same period of 2024.
Meanwhile, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has requested approval from the national assembly for external loans totalling $6 billion.
In its report, the IMF warned that the global fiscal outlook is deteriorating despite signs of economic resilience. It said global gross government debt reached nearly 94%of GDP in 2025 and could climb to 100% by 2029 — a level last seen in the aftermath of World War II.
The fund added that global debt-at-risk could rise to 117% of GDP in the next three years, reflecting increasing downside risks.
According to the IMF, ongoing tensions in the Middle East could further strain public finances through rising food and fuel prices, tighter financial conditions, and increased defence spending. A prolonged conflict could push global debt-at-risk up by an additional four percentage points.
It also warned that a correction in artificial intelligence-related asset valuations, including a potential 20% drop in US stocks, could increase global debt risks by another 2.4 percentage points.
Speaking on the report, the IMF’s director of fiscal affairs, Rodrigo Valdés, urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers and prioritise support for vulnerable populations.
He cautioned against delaying fiscal consolidation, noting that postponement would further constrain governments’ ability to respond to future crises.
Valdés also advised against broad-based energy subsidies, describing them as costly, regressive, and difficult to reverse, while stressing the need for stronger domestic revenue mobilisation in low-income countries.
