Asylum requests across the European Union declined significantly in 2025, dropping by nearly 20 percent compared to the previous year, according to new data released Tuesday by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA).
Despite the overall reduction, the agency warned that escalating instability in Iran could reverse the trend and trigger large-scale population displacement.
In a report compiled before the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict involving Iran, the EUAA cautioned that developments inside the Islamic Republic pose serious migration risks.
“With a population of approximately 90 million, even partial destabilisation could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude,” the agency said.
European governments — many of which have tightened migration policies in recent years — are closely monitoring the situation. Diplomatic sources said the possibility of new refugee flows was discussed during an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers on Sunday and will remain a key issue when interior ministers from the bloc’s 27 member states convene in Brussels on Thursday.
The European Commission said it is already “enhancing preparedness through closer monitoring” while strengthening coordination with United Nations bodies and partner nations.
When asked to assess how the expanding Middle East conflict might influence migration patterns, the EUAA declined to offer projections.
“The situation remains very fluid, and it would be irresponsible to make any hypothetical or predictive statement,” the agency said, adding that it was “not in a position to comment on any impact the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East may have.”
The report noted that displacement involving just 10 percent of Iran’s population could rival some of the largest refugee movements seen globally in recent decades, though it stressed that such a scenario remains “highly speculative.”
Describing Iran as a potential “flashpoint,” the agency pointed to internal unrest, protests against clerical leadership, and previous strikes on nuclear facilities as factors contributing to regional volatility.
“The decline in applications should therefore be interpreted with caution,” the report added.
Iran itself currently hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations, accommodating about 2.5 million displaced persons — mostly Afghans — according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
So far, outward displacement from Iran has remained limited. Iranian nationals submitted roughly 8,000 asylum applications across EU countries, as well as Switzerland and Norway, in 2025, ranking them the 31st largest applicant group.
Overall, EU+ countries recorded about 822,000 asylum applications in 2025, representing a 19 percent decline after an earlier 11 percent drop in 2024.
The reduction was largely driven by fewer applications from Syrians, Bangladeshis, and Turkish nationals, while Afghans remained the largest group of applicants with 117,000 submissions — a 33 percent increase year-on-year. Venezuelans followed with approximately 91,000 applications.
