By: Helen Okechukwu and Friday Omosola
Political analyst Dr Bayo Fasunwon has expressed concerns over the Supreme Court’s decision restricting the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Accountant General of the Federation, and other financial agencies from disbursing funds to the Rivers State Government.
The court directive halted the state’s share of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) funds following a statement by Accountant General Bawa Mokwa in November 2024 confirming that no allocation was made to Rivers in October due to a legal order.
This development unfolds amid the escalating conflict between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.
Speaking exclusively to this newspaper, Mr Fasunwon cautioned that withholding the state’s funds as a means of penalizing Governor Fubara could inflict severe hardship on Rivers residents.
The political science lecturer at Adekunle Ajayi University, Akungba-Akoko (AAUA), Ondo State, warned that failure to resolve the situation might trigger a resurgence of criminal activities, including banditry and kidnapping.
He said: “Kidnapping and other crimes may resurface; pipeline vandalism could return if people decide to take the wrong path, and they might also attempt to sabotage the Federal Government’s (FG) revenue. The Federal Government should tread carefully because Nigeria is not fully prepared to endure another round of crisis at this time.
“If the state governor believes that political solutions may fail, then a resurgence of banditry could be the next consequence. There may be protests, depending on how much the people of Rivers love Fubara. When hunger sets in, people may return to the creeks, bombing Federal Government pipelines in an attempt to sabotage the administration.”
Governance and fiscal challenges
Mr Fasunwon warned that various sectors within the state could face a breakdown, which would put significant pressure on the state’s financial resources.
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He emphasised that due to inadequate funding, the government might struggle to maintain public infrastructure and essential services for residents.
At the start of the year, Rivers State Governor Fubara signed the state’s N1.1 trillion budget for 2025 after it received legislative approval from the House of Assembly under Speaker Victor Oko-Jumbo.
“However, if they start looking inward, it could make life even more difficult. This is because the cost of governance may rise, prompting the state to increase taxes and take other measures to generate revenue.
“But there is another perspective to consider. If the state decides to let the federal government hold onto its funds and see how it can manage independently, it may expose the extent of corruption within the system. In reality, the little revenue the state generates might have been sufficient to meet the people’s needs if not for financial mismanagement.
“So, while this situation has both advantages and disadvantages, I believe it will ultimately help the Rivers State Government and its people recognize past financial wastage and take steps to curb it. This could be a wake-up call, but at the same time, key sectors will inevitably suffer due to the lack of funds.”
The political analyst added that the non-release of funds does not mean the state is entirely cut off.
He explained, “What the federal government is saying is that unless certain conditions are met, the funds will not be released. That is the implication.
“The state may choose to comply with these conditions to access the funds, but this could further deepen divisions. If the governor is pressured into making decisions he is reluctant about, it may lead to more political manoeuvring in the future.”
Arguing that the Supreme Court’s decision has not truly resolved the issue, he stated, “We have a connection to access the funds, but once they arrive, they will likely be spent more on targeting those seen as opponents of Fubara rather than on the state’s development.
“In the end, whether the funds are disbursed or withheld, I doubt the people will benefit significantly in terms of infrastructure or quality public services.”
IGR alone might not be enough
Responding to a question about whether the state could rely solely on internally generated revenue (IGR), Mr Fasunwon noted that, given the high cost of living in Rivers State, IGR might fall short of fully supporting the economy.
However, he emphasised that this challenge presents an opportunity for the state government to explore alternative revenue streams and reduce its dependence on FAAC allocations.
“If you examine Nigeria closely, you will realize that all states rely on federal allocations for survival. However, considering the unique economic potential of Rivers State, one could argue that it can sustain itself through internally generated revenue, which is why it has been able to generate funds at the local level.
“But not all governments may be willing to take on this challenge. In my view, it is a positive development as it would encourage strategic thinking. Every state government must develop a sustainable approach to increasing its internally generated revenue. This also raises concerns about the continuous demand for the creation of more states.
“From what we are witnessing in Rivers State, those advocating for new states should look beyond federal allocations and consider how these states would sustain themselves without relying on federal revenue,” Mr Fasunwon added.
Analytical reasoning
Furthermore, he stated that the suspension of FAAC allocations would push the state to explore innovative ways to boost its internally generated revenue.
He suggested that a thorough review of their spending patterns could help identify gaps, allowing them to curb unnecessary expenses and cut down on waste, acknowledging that the process might be challenging.
“Remember that at a point in Lagos State, during the period of conflict between the state and the Federal Government when Tinubu was governor, allocations to local governments were withheld.
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“Despite this, Lagos State managed to move forward. Similarly, the Rivers State Government can explore internal revenue sources. However, as I mentioned, the state’s high expenditure may make it difficult to generate the needed funds in critical times.”
Next steps
Although the Supreme Court’s decision is final under the Nigerian Constitution, the scholar noted that the state government still has options if it wishes to pursue justice.
He suggested that Fubara and his allies could explore legal avenues through their legal team. However, he lamented the entire situation, calling it regrettable.
“Sometimes, when political alternatives should be explored, they are not used at the right time. Once the court has delivered its judgment, those options may no longer be effective. However, we understand that Nigerian politicians are birds of a feather—they know how to joke among themselves and reconcile,” the don said.
“So, they can still find a way to reconcile, understand each other, and communicate. The political options are still available.”
