With Donald Trump’s return to the White House looking increasingly likely, questions are swirling over what his presidency could mean for Africa’s economic landscape. From trade policies to foreign aid, a Trump administration could bring both challenges and opportunities for African nations navigating a shifting global economy.
Trade Relations: New Focus on Bilateral Deals
Under Trump’s “America First” approach, the U.S. may prioritize agreements that directly benefit American interests, potentially impacting African trade agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). AGOA, which allows certain African exports duty-free access to the U.S. market, has been critical for industries like textiles, agriculture, and manufacturing in Africa.
Trump’s stance could lead to a push for more reciprocal trade agreements, requiring African countries to offer similar benefits to U.S. goods in return. This shift could challenge economies heavily dependent on exports to the U.S. and force them to renegotiate terms that had previously been favorable.
Preference for Bilateral Agreements Over Regional Trade
During his previous administration, Trump often favored bilateral trade deals over multilateral agreements. This approach may lead to individual African nations negotiating directly with the U.S. instead of benefiting from collective regional agreements. While larger economies like South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya may attract direct U.S. engagement, smaller nations could face a struggle to maintain significant trade ties.
Such a shift could also slow down the momentum of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a major regional initiative to boost intra-African trade. If the U.S. demands individual agreements with African nations, it could reduce the incentive for countries to prioritize regional trade development.
Potential Cuts to Development Aid
Trump’s previous tenure saw attempts to reduce the U.S. foreign aid budget, and a second term may bring further cuts. For African nations, particularly those relying on U.S. aid for healthcare, education, and infrastructure, reduced aid could have serious implications. U.S. foreign assistance programs like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have historically provided critical support in these areas.
Trump’s emphasis on “self-reliance” may pressure African countries to rely more on their domestic resources or seek alternative partnerships with China, the European Union, or regional development banks.
Heightened Competition with China: A Double-Edged Sword
Trump’s hawkish stance on China could indirectly affect Africa, as the U.S. may increase investments in Africa to counter China’s economic influence. China has been Africa’s largest trading partner, with significant investments in infrastructure, mining, and technology. Increased U.S. presence could provide African countries with more financing options, potentially improving terms and creating healthy competition in infrastructure and technology investment.
However, African nations may find themselves in a delicate balancing act, as they navigate relationships with both the U.S. and China. Should Trump’s administration pressure countries to align with U.S. interests, this could complicate existing arrangements and place African governments in challenging positions.
Security and Counterterrorism: An Area of Continued Focus
Trump has consistently emphasized security cooperation, and African countries—particularly those in the Sahel and Horn of Africa—may continue to receive counterterrorism support. The Sahel, with its persistent threat from groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab, could benefit from U.S. security funding and training.
While security cooperation may bring stability to regions plagued by extremism, there are concerns that this focus could divert attention and resources away from economic development programs. Trump’s prioritization of security over development could shape the allocation of U.S. assistance, with more funding directed towards military operations rather than long-term economic growth initiatives.
Energy and Resource Extraction: Opportunities and Risks
Trump’s policies favoring deregulation and investment in energy sectors may open doors for U.S. companies to invest more in African oil, gas, and mining industries. African nations rich in natural resources, such as Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana, could attract increased investment in extractive industries, potentially boosting foreign direct investment (FDI) and government revenues.
However, critics argue that an overemphasis on resource extraction could lead to economic dependency on volatile global commodity markets. African governments might face pressure to focus on extractive industries rather than pursuing diversified economic growth across sectors such as manufacturing, technology, and services.
Impact on Climate Policy and Environmental Funding
Trump’s previous administration saw a rollback of environmental regulations and a withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, signaling limited U.S. commitment to climate change initiatives. African nations, which are among the most vulnerable to climate impacts, may see reduced collaboration on climate adaptation and sustainable energy projects.
For countries reliant on agriculture and fishing—sectors highly affected by climate change—this lack of support could have lasting economic repercussions. In coastal regions such as those in West Africa, climate-driven sea-level rise and flooding are already impacting livelihoods. Without international backing, African nations may struggle to address climate-related challenges effectively.
The Path Forward: Navigating an Uncertain Landscape
Trump’s presidency could bring mixed outcomes for Africa’s economy. While increased competition with China might bring investment opportunities, reduced aid, a focus on bilateral trade, and an emphasis on security over development could create challenges for long-term economic stability. African nations may need to adopt a flexible, strategic approach to maintain beneficial relations with the U.S. while pursuing economic partnerships with other global powers.
Ultimately, Africa’s economic future under a Trump administration will depend on the continent’s ability to balance its own interests within a shifting geopolitical landscape. African leaders will likely seek to navigate this complex environment carefully, exploring diversified partnerships and building resilience to external economic pressures.
