Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89 per cent in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, despite a decline in crude oil production, with growth largely supported by strong performances in agriculture, telecommunications, financial services, construction, and trade.
According to data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the latest figure marks an improvement on the 3.13 per cent growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, signalling continued recovery momentum driven mainly by the non-oil sector.
The bureau stated: “Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.89 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the 3.13 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025.”
Agriculture, services and industry support growth
Nigeria’s agricultural sector recorded a significant rebound, growing by 3.15 per cent in Q1 2026 compared with just 0.07 per cent in the same period of the previous year. Industry also posted modest gains, expanding by 3.50 per cent from 3.42 per cent in Q1 2025.
The services sector remained the dominant contributor to economic activity, growing by 4.31 per cent and accounting for 57.73 per cent of total Gross Domestic Product, slightly higher than its 57.50 per cent share in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
In nominal terms, GDP rose sharply to N110.79 trillion from N94.05 trillion a year earlier, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.79 per cent.
Oil output declines despite marginal sector growth
Despite overall economic expansion, crude oil production declined during the quarter. The NBS reported average daily production of 1.55 million barrels per day, down from 1.62 million barrels in Q1 2025 and 1.58 million barrels in Q4 2025.
However,the oil sector still recorded real growth of 2.57 per cent, slightly higher than the 1.87 per cent recorded in the same period last year. Its contribution to real GDP, though, slipped marginally to 3.92 per cent from 3.97 per cent.
Non-oil sector remains dominant
The non-oil sector continued to anchor the economy, growing by 3.94 per cent and contributing 96.08 per cent of total real GDP.
Key drivers included telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial services, real estate, construction, and road transportation.
The NBS noted that trade remained the largest contributor to GDP at 17.89 per cent, followed by crop production at 17.38 per cent and real estate at 13.10 per cent. Telecommunications and information services contributed 9.19 per cent, while construction accounted for 4.85 per cent.
Strong performances in ICT and finance
The Information and Communication sector emerged as one of the strongest growth drivers, expanding by 10.98 per cent and contributing 11.31 per cent to total GDP.
Nigeria’s finance and insurance sector also grew strongly by 8.54 per cent, while construction expanded by 6.38 per cent. Manufacturing recorded growth of 3.29 per cent and accounted for 9.57 per cent of GDP.
Other sectors such as transport and storage (7.41 per cent), arts and entertainment (11.25 per cent), and water supply and waste management (10.32 per cent) also posted positive growth.
However, electricity, gas and air conditioning supply contracted sharply by 15.30 per cent, while the “other services” category declined by 1.96 per cent.
Outlook and external projections
The latest performance comes amid mixed global economic forecasts. The World Bank had earlier revised its outlook for Nigeria, projecting growth of 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027, slightly below earlier estimates.
The lender attributed the downgrade to global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, weaker demand, and volatility in oil markets, though it noted that non-oil sector reforms continue to support Nigeria’s economic resilience.
Overall, the Q1 2026 data suggests that while oil production challenges persist, Nigeria’s economic growth continues to be increasingly driven by diversification into non-oil sectors.
