The world watches with bated breath as Americans vote for their next president in a general election that is underway across the nation.
Widely perceived as the world’s most powerful nation, and leading democracy, it is unsurprising that all nations, states, organizations, and personalities, whether political, government, or private, will be monitoring the blow-by-blow, minute-by-minute goings-on in the election that could decide the fate of the whole world for the next four years.
And, once polls close, depending on how close the contest is, it is possible a winner will not be projected for several hours, days, or even weeks.
Here’s what you need to know.
When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?
Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, a former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.
National and swing state polls have tightened in the weeks leading to the election, so there could be very narrow margins of victory in several places, which may require votes to be recounted.
It is also possible that some results may come in more slowly this year due to changes in how individual states – including all seven swing states that will ultimately decide the race – have administered their elections since 2020.
On the other hand, vote-counting has been sped up in places like Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail this time than in the last election, which was held during the Covid pandemic.
This means there are several possible outcomes – a winner declared on election night, the next morning, or possibly days or weeks later.
When are presidential election results usually announced?
Generally, voters have become used to the idea that they will know who the next president is going to be by the time they go to bed late on election night or at least in the early morning hours of the next day.
In 2016, for example, when Trump first won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.
In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.
But one notable recent exception was the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore.
The two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida, and the race was not decided until 12 December when the US Supreme Court voted to end the state’s recount process, keeping Bush in place as the certified winner and thus handing him the keys to the White House.
What are the key states to watch?
Across the country, the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening and the last polls will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.
But this race is expected to come down to results from the seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
19:00 EST (00:00 GMT) – Polls close in Georgia and five other states, and partially in two more states. This is also when US TV networks are likely to begin making their first calls of the night, in less competitive states like Kentucky.
19:30 EST (00:30 GMT) – Polls close across three states, including North Carolina, where Harris is hoping to end a string of losses for Democratic presidential candidates since 2008.
20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) – Polls close in Pennsylvania, 15 other states and the District of Columbia, as well as partially in Michigan and four other states.
21:00 EST (02:00 GMT) – All remaining polls close in Michigan. Voting will also end in Arizona, Wisconsin and 12 other states.
22:00 EST (03:00 GMT) – Polls close across Nevada and two other states, and partially in two others.
How does the vote-counting work?
Typically, the votes cast on election day are tallied first, followed by early and mail ballots, those that have been challenged, and then overseas and military ballots.
Local election officials – sometimes appointed, sometimes elected – verify, process and count individual votes, in a process known as canvassing.
Verifying ballots includes comparing the number cast with the number of active voters; removing, unfolding and examining every single ballot for tears, stains or other damage; and documenting and investigating any inconsistencies.
Counting ballots involves feeding each one into electronic scanners that tabulate their results. Some circumstances require manual counts or double-checked tallies.
Every state and locality has rigorous rules which specify who can participate in the canvass, the order in which votes are processed and which parts are open to the public, including how partisan observers can monitor and intervene in vote-counting.
What could delay the presidential election result?
Tight margins will compel media outlets to wait longer before making their projections, but they also raise the spectre of recounts and legal challenges.
In Pennsylvania, for example, an automatic state-wide recount goes into effect if there’s a half-percentage point difference between the votes cast for the winner and the loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points.
More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed across the country, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management by Republicans. Ongoing court rulings in these cases have been shaping this race by the day.
Other scenarios that could cause delays include any instances of election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations, and obstacles to vote-counting, like the bursting of a water pipe at a ballot processing site in Georgia in 2020.
What happens if the presidential election results are challenged?
Once every valid vote has been included in the final results, and after processes such as recounts have been completed, the election results are certified – first in local jurisdictions, then at the state-wide level.
A state executive, typically the governor, then certifies what’s known as a slate of electors that will represent their state in the electoral college. These electors meet in their respective states on 17 December to cast their votes and send them to Washington.
On 6 January, a new US Congress meets in a joint session to count the electoral votes, with the current vice-president presiding.
After the 2020 election, Trump refused to concede and rallied supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress was meeting to certify Biden’s victory.
He urged his vice president, Mike Pence, to reject the results – but Pence refused.
Even after the riot was cleared and members of Congress regrouped, 147 Republicans voted unsuccessfully to overturn Trump’s loss.
Electoral reforms since then have made it harder for lawmakers to object to certified results sent to them from individual states, and have also clarified that the vice-president has no power to unilaterally reject electoral votes.
Nevertheless, election watchers expect that efforts to delay certification of the 2024 vote could take place at the local and state level.
Trump, his running mate JD Vance, and top Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have refused on several occasions to state unequivocally that they will accept the results of the election if he loses.
…Watch here as our team of reliable reporters provide timely updates
