In Syrian conflict, the recent seizure of Hama by rebel forces has sent shockwaves through the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, escalating initial tremors into what can only be described as an earthquake.
Just days after rebels captured Aleppo, analysts and military observers predicted that Hama—located over 130 kilometres (80 miles) south of Aleppo—would pose an insurmountable challenge for the jihadist-led factions. Many believed that the forces loyal to Assad would have time to regroup and fortify their defences, quashing any rebel advance before they could reach the city’s gates. However, their calculations proved to be gravely mistaken.
On Thursday, the rebels achieved a stunning victory, capturing Hama with minimal resistance, even going so far as to film their celebratory stroll through the governor’s lavish marble mansion. The swift fall of this strategic city has sent ripples of jubilation among the Syrian refugees who had fled Assad’s regime during the earlier years of the civil war, ushering in a wave of cautious optimism.
Following the loss of Aleppo, Assad’s forces hurried to establish a defensive perimeter around Hama. This city has long been considered a critical crossroads for numerous strategic highways across Syria. Interestingly, Hama was a location that saw no significant fighting during the civil war from 2011 to 2016, primarily because opposition forces understood the futility of challenging the regime’s heavily fortified positions.
The capture of Hama marks a critical juncture for the rebels, presenting an unprecedented opportunity to advance further south toward Homs. It is in Homs that the seeds of discontent against Assad were first publicly sown in 2011, a movement that ultimately spiralled into the widespread conflict engulfing the nation today. However, if the rebels continue southward, they will likely face their most formidable challenges yet; Homs serves as a vital link to the capital, Damascus, and is entrenched within Assad’s loyalist stronghold along the Mediterranean coast.
Further complicating matters, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the chief jihadist group spearheading the rebellion, signalled a possible shift in strategy by extending an olive branch to Assad’s Alawite community. HTS has pledged to protect this minority group and encouraged its members to deflect support away from the regime. This gesture reflects HTS’s transformation from a jihadist faction into a shrewd player within Syria’s political landscape.
Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who is the target of a $10 million U.S. bounty, HTS has been keen to distance itself from its extremist roots, even considering a rebranding to foster a more inclusive national identity. Al-Jolani, who now dons military fatigues reminiscent of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, has emphasized that various minorities including Kurds and Christians will not face persecution at the hands of his troops. Over the last four years, HTS has equipped itself with elite units and advanced weaponry, outpacing Assad’s beleaguered forces.
The Assad regime is currently grappling with diminishing morale among its soldiers and a declining support network from its traditional allies, Russia and Iran. In a desperate effort to bolster troop morale, Assad raised military salaries by 50 per cent this week underscoring the precarious state of his government.
Meanwhile, in the capital city of Damascus, a palpable atmosphere of anxiety prevails. Elite units from the 4th Division maintain a vigilant presence, while the Republican Guard protects the president along with other crucial state institutions. Certain southern neighbourhoods are now patrolled by Iranian-backed militias, a sign of the escalating tensions.
Should the rebels succeed in advancing toward Homs, the future of Assad’s regime will hang perilously in the balance. They may also consider strategic military actions against Russian sites such as the Tartus naval base or the Hmeimim airbase, or pivot towards securing key oil and gas fields to deny the regime vital resources.
Whatever course the rebels choose to take, the reality remains grim for Assad, as he faces an increasingly fragmented Syria and dwindling military resources. In just one week, the regime has lost a staggering six air bases across Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo, significantly constraining the operational capabilities of both Russian and Syrian air forces. With an estimated loss of 25 to 33 per cent of its military hardware, the regime is in a perilous state as momentum continues to shift away from Assad and his administration.
