By Olaoluwa Vincent Ajayi
A deepening divide is emerging between Wall Street economists and the White House, as stark recession warnings clash with confident reassurances from top Trump officials.
John P. Hussman, the economist renowned for anticipating the 2008 financial crisis, has forecast that the U.S. may slide into recession as soon as mid-2025. His concerns are echoed by analysts at JPMorgan, who this week raised the probability of a global recession to 60%, citing aggressive new tariffs and deteriorating trade relationships under President Trump’s latest economic offensive.
At the center of the storm is a $6 trillion stock market collapse triggered by Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day”—a sweeping tariff blitz that imposed a 54% levy on Chinese goods, and 10–20% tariffs on imports from the UK and EU. In response, JPMorgan slashed its U.S. GDP forecast from 1.3% growth to a 0.3% contraction, warning the American economy is now at risk of tipping into a downturn.
Despite the upheaval, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a defiant tone during NBC interview on Sunday, rejecting any suggestion of an imminent recession. “There’s no reason to expect a downturn,” he said. “Markets are organic—short-term reactions are part of the process.”
Bessent pointed to strong job creation, low interest rates, and falling oil prices as signs of resilience, describing recent volatility as a temporary adjustment. “We saw this during the Reagan years. It was bumpy, but necessary,” he said.
President Trump, too, weighed in over the weekend, telling Americans to “hang tough” during what he described as a necessary course correction in global trade.
But JPMorgan’s latest report paints a darker picture. The bank now believes recession risks are not only real but accelerating. “The tariffs are no longer a negotiating tool—they’re shaping the economy,” the note read.
Bessent, a veteran investor and former George Soros protégé, dismissed such projections, arguing that markets consistently misread Trump. “The night he won in 2016, the market panicked—and yet he turned out to be the most pro-business president in modern history.”
As global markets sway between pessimism and political spin, one question looms: Is this a necessary reset—or the start of a broader economic unraveling?
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