Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to soften key elements of Labour’s welfare reform plans in a bid to avoid his first major defeat in the House of Commons.
Facing a growing revolt from within his party, the Prime Minister is considering last-minute amendments to his flagship welfare Bill to prevent a damaging rebellion from more than 120 Labour MPs.
Sources in No 10 confirmed that officials are examining ways to avert a showdown in Tuesday’s Commons vote, including options such as accelerating the rollout of support payments for people returning to work and pledging to publish reviews of disability and employment support policies.
More than 123 Labour MPs ,over a quarter of the party’s 403 in Parliament have signed a rebel amendment seeking to block the Bill. With Labour holding a majority of 165, just 83 MPs would need to vote against the legislation for the government to lose the vote.
Some of the most controversial aspects of the proposed reforms include raising the threshold for Personal Independence Payment (PIP), halving the Universal Credit health top-up for new claimants from 2026, and scrapping the Work Capability Assessment measures that have provoked widespread backlash among Labour backbenchers.
The scale of dissent has forced No 10 to explore concessions, including possibly removing or postponing the most contested reforms, such as disability benefit cuts. Starmer is also expected to personally intervene in the coming days by holding talks with dissenting MPs.
‘Starmer did not rule out further changes’
At a press conference on Wednesday, the Prime Minister did not rule out further changes, and Deputy Leader Angela Rayner confirmed that discussions were ongoing. She said Labour MPs would not be forced to vote against their values, stating: “We’re not expecting our benches to do anything that isn’t in check with them.”
Critics within the party say the current plans risk damaging support for the government and harming vulnerable groups. Diane Abbott called accusations that opposing the reforms is immoral scandalous, while another Labour MP accused No 10 of panic and resorting to bankrupt arguments.
Outside Parliament, Labour mayors Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan have urged the government to pause the legislation.
Meanwhile, opposition parties, including the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, are planning to vote against the Bill, increasing the chances of defeat.
Reform leader, Nigel Farage, declared: “I won’t do anything to help a Government get out of trouble that is doing such damage to our nation.”
Despite the pressure, Starmer defended his leadership and political instincts at the Nato summit in The Hague, pointing to Labour’s landslide election victory as proof that he understands how to read the room.
The government is now considering whether to introduce a rival amendment to address some of the rebels’ concerns. One idea being discussed is bringing forward elements of a £1 billion employment support package, although this would complicate the £5 billion in annual savings already planned by the Treasury.
The backlash has been fuelled by concerns that too much of the support for those returning to work won’t be delivered until near the end of the decade. A key independent review, led by former John Lewis Partnership chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield, is expected in the autumn but cannot be fast-tracked.
On Thursday, the Centre for Social Justice is set to publish an analysis suggesting up to £9 billion could be saved by limiting mental health-related benefits to only the most severe cases.
Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, plans to back the proposal in a speech, criticising Starmer for caving in to internal pressure.
“This weak Government is discussing watering down their already ineffective welfare Bill,” she said.
Former Labour home secretary Lord Blunkett warned that a Commons defeat on the Bill would be a humiliating blow, and could force the government to call a confidence vote to prove it still holds a majority.
“If they lost it, they would have to go for a vote of confidence,” he told LBC. “The embarrassment of that, one year in, leaves you with two problems: humiliation and an unresolved welfare issue.”
As the government scrambles to avoid a defeat, public consultation continues, and all eyes turn to Tuesday’s crucial vote, a test not only of Starmer’s policy agenda but also of his ability to hold his party together.
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