In consonance with the provisions of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), Nigerian voters will in two years’ time -2027 – go to the polls to elect a president who will steer the country’s affairs for another four years.
However, while the exact date for the 2027 presidential election remains unknown, yet the political landscape is already upbeat with behind-the-scenes negotiations, alignments and horse-trading among key contenders.
Also, major political parties are not left out in the rave of the moment, as they are re-strategizing for the fierce electoral contest.
In this report, The New Daily Prime examines the 2027 polls, the chances of presidential polls’ contenders, their proposed policies, and the key factors that will shape the election.
Bola Tinubu
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the incumbent Nigeria’s President elected under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is most likely to contest the 2027 presidential election for a second term.
As in the 2023 presidential election, what has traditionally been a two-horse race between the ruling and opposition parties is expected to feature a strong third contender—or even a fourth.
Tinubu’s APC is likely to capitalize on his previous stronghold in the North, where he enjoyed massive support, as a key strategy for securing his victory.
Additionally, the APC’s control of more states may serve as another advantage, allowing the President to leverage on the influence of governors to win the hearts of the electorate in many states in 2027.
Furthermore, President Tinubu and his party may still rely on the narratives surrounding a candidate’s ethnicity, religion, and regional representation—issues that played a significant role in past elections.
This strategy could prove effective, given the ongoing discourse about the need to shift power to the South after President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure. Similar sentiments dominated the build-up to the 2023 election and ultimately contributed to Tinubu’s victory.
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Moreover, the APC may also engage in strategic negotiations with other opposition parties to consolidate its votes in the country’s six geo-political zones.
Peter Obi
From all indications and his body language, the former Anambra State Governor does not seem to have the intention of backing out of the 2027 presidential election.
He has continued to consolidate his political base across the country and has been consistent in affirming his planned vision for a new Nigeria.
While it remains uncertain whether he will secure the Labour Party (LP) ticket for the 2027 polls —especially as political pundits and party stakeholders debate who has the best chance of defeating President Tinubu—his strong electoral performance, where he placed second position, could bolster his candidacy.
If he wins the party’s presidential primaries, there is a possibility that he will adopt the same strategy of preaching and reaching out deployed in the 2023 presidential election, despite its limited success.
Even his army of supporters -Obidients- who were primarily visible on social media kept opposition parties jittery during the 2023 election. Although it is unclear whether Obi and his party—if he becomes its flag bearer—will employ this strategy again, and whether it could yield positive results if his supporters turn out to vote.
Ethnicity may also play a role in Obi’s chances of winning the 2027 presidential election, as seen in Lagos State when he was declared the winner there in 2023.
Obi and his LP may also adopt political strategies that involve forging alliances with influential political figures, and regional leaders across the country.
They may also seek the support of traditional rulers, religious leaders, and civil society organisations to strengthen their grassroots influence.
While Obi enjoys strong backing from urban youth and middle-class Nigerians, his party may need to actively engage rural voters through grassroots mobilization, leveraging local influencers, town hall meetings, and community-based campaigns.
Atiku Abubakar
Another major contender in the upcoming presidential election could be the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.
However, after suffering consecutive defeats as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) flag bearer in the last two elections, the party may or may not consider him as its next candidate.
Nonetheless, given his resolve to remain a rallying point in Nigeria’s political space, Atiku is most likely to contest the 2027 election, as he is determined to become Nigeria’s president.
However, whichever party he represents will need to strengthen its structure by building strong leadership at the ward, local government, and state levels—especially since he finished third in the last presidential election, losing the second position he once held, to Obi.
Furthermore, the party might seek to leverage a strategy of recruiting credible and influential candidates for governorship, National Assembly, and state assembly positions. It must also ensure that party agents are well-trained and present at polling units to prevent electoral malpractice.
Seyi Makinde
Seyi Makinde, the Oyo State Governor’s bid for the presidential race remains speculative, but strong indications suggest that many within the PDP acknowledge his viability for the exalted ticket.
If he decides to run, he will likely be an aspirant for the party’s presidential ticket in 2027. The PDP is seeking a new direction as it moves towards 2027 after suffering three consecutive defeats in the presidential elections.
Having lost credibility for twelve years—longer in some states—the PDP and its candidates may adopt political strategies that focus on communicating clear and practical policies on the economy, security, education, and job creation.
Although Makinde remains one of the most loved governors, winning the PDP ticket may not guarantee him success. The party’s strategy may also involve countering misinformation and propaganda through social media, radio, TV, and grassroots campaigns.
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Additionally, the party aims to engage with labour unions, professional bodies, and student organisations to solidify support. It also plans to encourage and assist supporters in registering for PVCs, ensure they collect them, and organize voter education programs to prevent voter ID suppression and boost turnout.
Rabiu Kwankwaso
Kwankwaso, the former Minister of Defence ran unsuccessfully for President of Nigeria in 2023 under the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), securing only 6.23 per cent of the votes cast.
While it is clear that the former Kano State governor may contest again, allegations of irregularities in the last election, where he placed fourth, could influence his party’s strategy. The NNPP may collaborate with civil society groups to monitor the electoral process and report cases of irregularities.
Although it is uncertain whether he will clinch the NNPP ticket for the 2027 polls, the party may seek to boost its financial contributions from supporters through crowdfunding and transparent fundraising as part of its strategy to win.
Moreover, the party may focus on ensuring the proper allocation of resources for campaign logistics, media outreach, and election-day activities.
Omoyele Sowore
Another key person who may contest this is the human rights activist, Omoyele Sowore.
He ran for president in 2023 but lost to President Tinubu.
Sowore, who founded the African Action Congress (AAC) party and ran as its presidential candidate in 2019, recorded fewer votes. However, if he emerges as the party’s candidate in 2027, the party may strategize politically by using data-driven strategies to identify strongholds, swing states, and areas needing more engagement.
AAC may also deploy technology to track election activities, monitor results, and prevent vote rigging, having alleged fraud in past elections.
Nasiru El-Rufai
Nasiru El-Rufai, the former Kaduna State governor is another politician who may contest the 2027 presidential election, especially following his recent criticisms of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration.
Although El-Rufai’s choice of the party remains unknown, should he emerge from any party, they will likely strategize to resolve any internal leadership disputes, presenting a united front and ensuring all candidates and stakeholders align with the party’s vision and strategy.
Key factor that will shape 2027 elections
Several major factors will likely shape the forthcoming 2027 election, including ethnicity, zoning, manifestos, political influencers, and money.
Since the inception of democracy, the ethnicity debate has always been a major one during the buildup to each presidential election. Although there are about 250 ethnic groups in Nigeria, the Igbo, Yoruba, and Hausa have remained the dominant ones. The ethnicity factor which has shaped and influenced who becomes president—especially in 2023—will also play a major role in the 2027 election.
It is likely that the Igbo may not emerge as president, though a potential candidate from their ethnic group, such as Obi could win if more work and realignments are done.
However, the Igbo may still have an opportunity to secure the Vice President slot if they align with a political party that has a strong strategy for victory.
Another key factor that cannot be overlooked, and which has always been at play, is the zoning formula as seen in the 2023 APC and PDP primaries. The geopolitical area a party selects its flag bearer will significantly influence its chances of winning the 2027 election.
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For instance, in 2023, the APC chose a candidate from the Southwest, while the PDP picked one from the North, a decision that experts argue contributed to its (PDP) failure. It is noted that had the PDP candidate come from the South-South or Southwest, the party may not have lost the polls.
It is most likely that in the forthcoming presidential election, a party with the right zoning strategy might have a greater chance of success than one that disregards the zoning formula.
Also, a party’s manifesto which outlines the plans and programmes of political parties and their candidates, is another pivotal factor in determining the outcome of presidential elections. Although manifestos have not held as much relevance in recent years, given the current political climate under President Tinubu’s administration, they could play a decisive role in the 2027 polls.
Parties that clearly articulate their aims and objectives for the electorate will likely have a higher chance of winning future elections.
Furthermore, political influencers and money are significant factors that will most likely determine the winner in the 2027 election.
While the constitution prohibits bribing and other forms of inducement, as such practices are unconstitutional and undermine the integrity of the election, most Nigerian politicians often prioritize money as a key factor for their electoral success.
In a nutshell, the highest bidder may ultimately secure victory in the 2027 polls if the issue of financial influence is not addressed and penalized appropriately.
Public sentiments and expectations
Due to the quest for the presidential slot between the ruling APC and opposition parties, all eyes are on the INEC to conduct a free and fair election in 2027
Nigerian voters are also more determined to cast their votes more wisely for their candidates of choice in 2027
Looking at the trends through various social media outlets, particularly on X (formerly known as Twitter), two presidential candidates have been on the front burners: Peter Obi, and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, leaving Atiku Abubakar in third place.
Nevertheless, the scoreboard remains undecided, as many Nigerians argue that if Obi becomes the next president, the country may experience division, potentially leading to crisis and chaos.
However, others posit that Obi’s victory at the polls would usher in economic prosperity, pointing to his tenure as the former governor of Anambra State, during which significant economic progress was made.
As for Tinubu, some Nigerians are still angling for his second term in office as president. Many of them are optimistic about his leadership capabilities and ability to lead the country out of its current economic backwaters.
