Economists are sometimes accused of spending too much time studying recondite subjects and constructing elaborate theoretical modls of little interest to anyone outside the profession’s high clergy, but here’s an NBER paper on some real-life drama.
FT Alphaville’s emphasis below: In this study, we investigate whether reproductive rights affect migration. We do so using a synthetic difference-in-differences design that leverages variation from the 2022 Dobbs decision, which allowed states to ban abortion, and population flows based on change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service. The results indicate that abortion bans cause significant increases in net migration outflows, with effect sizes growing throughout the year after the decision. The most recent data point indicates that total abortion bans come at the cost of more than 36,000 residents per quarter. The effects are more prominent for single-person households than for family households, which may reflect larger effects on younger adults. We also find suggestive evidence of impacts for states that were hostile towards abortion in ways other than having total bans.
If the most recent estimated effect is sustained over a five-year period (and the data indicates the effect is actually increasing), then it would imply a 0.98 per cent population loss for states that have banned abortion relative to those that maintain access.
This might seem small, but is the equivalent to the estimated population loss that comes with a 10 per cent increase of local crime rates, and about a tenth of the effect on a local community when there’s a toxic chemical release nearby.
And as the authors — Daniel Dench, Kelly Lifchez, Jason Lindo and Jancy Ling Liu — point out, the impact is particularly severe on younger, more educated and mobile people, who are economically more valuable. As the paper concludes:
States with abortion bans may face challenges in attracting and retaining workers, especially younger workers who represent future economic potential. These population flows and demographic shifts could affect a wide range of economic factors from tax bases to housing markets to the availability of workers in key industries. “I never thought leopards would eat MY face” etc etc
