By Helen Okechukwu
The Nigerian national grid collapsed again on 8 November, immediately after the Federal Government set up a committee that submitted a report. This collapse came barely 24 hours after repair.
This recent collapse made it the 11th time in 2024, leaving millions in the dark and causing massive disruptions to businesses and daily life.
Several experts have argued that the issue is deeper than mere technical failures, resulting from a complex mix of supply-and-demand mismatches, widespread vandalism, outdated infrastructure, and flawed energy policies.
Meanwhile, stakeholders in the power sector have warned that further occurrences may continue if steps are not taken urgently.
However, experts warn that without immediate action, the continued grid failures could paralyze Nigeria’s economy and leave an already struggling population in even greater distress, describing it as a barrier to economic growth and industrial productivity.
Recall that on 8 November, The New Daily Prime reported that the Minister for Power, Adebayo Adelabu, ordered the immediate replacement of aged equipment, assuring that the replacement would be achieved in six months.
Speaking with The New Daily Prime in an exclusive interview, an expert, Engr. James Ajayi Oladeji, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Radius Intuitive Engineering Ltd, told our correspondent about the root causes of the national grid’s frequent collapses.
Causes of National Grid Collapses
“In economics, we ask that in any equilibrium your supply must at least be higher than demand, which is to say that we have enough products for people to demand. This is applicable to the national grid. When the demand is higher than supply, there is going to be a problem. For example. When you have about 500 megawatts or 5,000 megawatts and the customer demand is around 570 or 6000 megawatts, we should know that the demand of customers is so high and the central equipment cannot carry it, then there will be a problem,” the expert explains.
Speaking further, he said, “The production of megawatts, if it is not enough for people to take, you can’t get regular people to take it. They have appliances at home; they can turn on their fridges at any time. Today I can go anywhere and buy a machine and add it to the machines that I am using in my construction company. So the demand is increasing every day, and the supply is too low. That is the major cause of the system collapsing.”
He noted that vandalism is another root cause of the system collapses that the country is grappling with, stressing that it must be addressed urgently by employing security agencies to monitor and protect the plants from theft.
His take, ”Without proactive security measures, the threat of vandalism will continue to hinder any efforts toward achieving a balanced, reliable grid.
“Our equipment are not monitored by our security agencies. Today you will be hearing that some areas have been vandalized, tomorrow you hear of other places. They vandalized cable and so on. All these things are contributing to the national grid collapsing because if national grid is not balanced or equal, there is going to be a problem with the one they are replacing in the transmission that is not enough. If one area is flowing with energy and the other area is being vandalized, the equilibrium is not going to be enough, and that will make us experience what we call higher supply, low demand.
“Whenever they are experiencing low demand and higher supply, that means the equilibrium is not balanced. And when the situation is not balanced, the line will trip off, and that will lead to general failure. If your supply is lower than demands, there will also be a problem too.”
Adding to the causes of this surge, he acknowledged that low maintenance has its effect on the power system.
Explaining further, he said, “The maintenance of our system is poor because in so many ways there are no materials to even loose some equipment. The people that bought the companies are only focused on profits for the company. They are not discussing how to maintain the network that they depend on.”
The MD highlighted the consequences of ageing infrastructure as another reason for the power plant collapsing, describing the existing one as being unfit to handle the current demand.
He said, “There are some pieces of equipment we are having in our network today that are even older than our great-great-grandfathers, and we know the technology of the country is improving every day. Using ageing equipment is causing another problem we can now identify. The infrastructure needs replacement and refurbishment.”
Call for Decentralization and Policy Reform
Oladeji believes that decentralizing power generation could allow for regional stability and innovation, empowering smaller companies and even states to produce and distribute their own electricity.
He said, “There is supposed to be a room for small companies to generate little power for distribution. There might be a small firm where you generate for yourself and distribute.
“What we are saying is that if they can decentralize the national grid and they are not be connected to each other and have a small grid of generation to distribute to people to use, if they have problems, it’s going to affect only them and will not affect other parts of generation. If this is how it is, all these things we won’t be talking about them.”
Oladeji urged the policymakers to create incentives and policies that encourage smaller power plants to enter the market, especially renewable sources like gas, solar, and wind energy, to diversify and stabilize Nigeria’s electricity supply, adding that it is a plus to the energy supply sector.
The Economic and Social Implications of Failure
However, he emphasized the consequences of continuous grid failure, which project Nigeria into a bad image, stating that manufacturers struggle to maintain operations without reliable power.
He stressed that the situation forces companies to either halt production or absorb the cost of backup generators, which further raises the price of goods.
The industry analyst said, “Revenue losses, damaged equipment, workers being laid off from their jobs, and compromised production processes are just some of the fallouts from Nigeria’s grid collapse.
”The result is stunted economic growth, as foreign investors shy away from a nation plagued by chronic power issues.
“If power stability is not guaranteed, foreign businesses won’t come.
“No investor wants to rely on generators for 24/7 operations. It is a very bad view for our image.”
Solutions
Oladeji said to reverse the trend of grid failures, government must tackle insecurity, enforce maintenance, and enable new energy policies.
He proposed an independent technical committee comprising experienced industry professionals to evaluate and overhaul the grid’s management practices.
“The solution is here for us. If the government is ready to look into it to get rid of it, they should checkmate the investors.
“The energy network is suffering from power, transmission, and distribution,” he noted, advocating that there should be a more rigorous maintenance schedule to extend the life of existing equipment.
Additionally, he noted that policymakers should empower citizens with metered billing systems, which encourage transparency and efficiency in electricity usage.
He noted that decentralization, improved renewable energy strategies, and strict enforcement of maintenance protocols could collectively stabilize the power supply, protecting Nigeria from further blackouts.
Alternative sources, a good idea
While speaking on alternative source usage in Nigeria, the analyst said it is a welcome development that needed to be applauded but only it should only serve as a backup and not as the main source of energy supply.
He bemoaned that the reverse is now the case in some areas, where some Nigerians solely depend on renewables like the solar system for power supply despite the high cost of purchase.
“Some people will put solar in their houses and now use electricity as a backup, but the renewable energy is supposed to be a backup, and electricity will become the major supply to their houses. But today you will see electricity as a backup in some areas,” he said.
A Call for Leadership
”Ultimately, it is up to the government to enforce these changes. Our population is growing, our industries are expanding, and our electricity needs are greater than ever. But if we don’t address the fundamental problems within our power sector, grid collapses will only increase,” he cautioned.
However, the expert calls for the setup of a committee that is made up of experienced experts to tackle the issue at the root cause of the aging equipment, warning that the selection process should not be “politicized.”
He said, “The committee needs to be set up, and it is not the one that they are setting up in Nigeria, where there is no result in their reports. The experts, i.e., people that have worked in electricity sectors, the grounded people, should come up and set a committee of very experienced people.
“Let us focus on this. I am quite sure if the technical committee can come up with good energy policy that will favour everybody, it will help the country.”
Way forward
He urged that meters should be given to residents to avoid further damages at the electricity firm.
“The issue of meter should be handled. They should give people a meter and light. This will begin to affect the equipment there,” he concluded.
By Helen Okechukwu
