By Damilola Olufemi and Friday Omosola
The political crisis in Rivers State has taken a new and significant turn with the federal government’s decision to withhold the state’s monthly allocation, citing a court order. This move has sparked widespread debate, raising concerns about economic instability, governance paralysis, and political maneuvering in one of Nigeria’s most strategic oil-producing states.
The feud between Siminalayi Fubara, Governor of Rivers State, and Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), has been at the center of this development. The power struggle between both leaders escalated following Wike’s alleged unilateral appointment of commissioners and special advisers without consulting the governor. This led to a political split, culminating in the defection of 27 lawmakers from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Despite President Bola Tinubu’s intervention, which resulted in an eight-point peace agreement, tensions have remained high, leading to governance dysfunction, security concerns, and financial disruptions. The federal government’s decision to withhold Rivers State’s allocation—ordinarily disbursed through the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC)—has only worsened the situation, threatening economic stability in a state that contributes significantly to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through oil and gas revenues.
Political and Economic Fallout of the Blocked Allocation
The financial implications of this blockade are far-reaching. The withheld funds were essential for infrastructure projects, healthcare, education, and public services, all of which now face possible delays or outright cancellations. Analysts warn that this move could further deter investors and undermine economic growth, not just in Rivers State but also nationally, considering its role in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
A weakened Rivers economy could trigger a chain reaction affecting employment, businesses, and public-sector salaries, which may escalate social unrest. If internal revenue generation (IGR) fails to bridge the gap, the state government could struggle to pay civil servants, contractors, and other essential service providers. This, in turn, could lead to mass protests, increased crime rates, and political instability.
In an interview with The New Daily Prime, political analyst Professor Busuyi Mekusi emphasized the dire consequences of withholding funds from Rivers State.
“Even though Rivers can attempt to sustain itself through IGR, there is a high possibility of sabotage at that level as well. A significant portion of the population will be financially disempowered, leading to widespread economic hardship,” Mekusi stated.
The professor further explained that the social impact of the crisis would be devastating, with civil servants and their dependents suffering the most.
“There will be economic disorientation. Those who should benefit from these funds, especially at the local government level, will be the hardest hit. Governance in the state will also be severely impaired,” he added.
Potential Security Implications
Beyond economic consequences, analysts warn that financial instability could exacerbate insecurity. A lack of funds for critical infrastructure and governance could create a breeding ground for militancy and criminal activities. Historically, the Niger Delta region has experienced unrest tied to economic deprivation and political conflicts, and this situation could trigger a resurgence of violent agitations.
Professor Mekusi suggested that if the situation remains unresolved, some citizens may resort to extreme measures to survive, including criminal activities.
“Some may turn to begging or petty theft, while others, unable to maintain rational judgment, could embrace full-blown criminality. This could escalate tensions significantly,” he warned.
Drawing parallels to historical political crises, he referenced the 2003-2007 Lagos State standoff, where then-President Olusegun Obasanjo withheld federal allocations from Lagos State, when Bola Tinubu was governor. However, Mekusi pointed out that Rivers State may not be able to withstand such financial pressure as Lagos did.
“Lagos managed to survive federal sanctions due to its strong economic base, but the same cannot be said for Rivers. The political environment, economic structures, and social dynamics are entirely different,” he noted.
Political Tensions and Possible Repercussions
With the political rift between Fubara and Wike deepening, stakeholders warn that the current crisis could lead to further instability, legal battles, and possible impeachment attempts.
Professor Mekusi predicted that the situation might reshape Rivers State’s political future, emphasizing that if Fubara is removed, his successor would likely have strong support from opposing factions, weakening any resistance from his loyalists.
“If Fubara and his deputy are removed today, a new governor will emerge with his own supporters. That alone could break the resolve of Fubara’s followers. But beyond that, there will be long-term animosities, political vengeance, and unresolved grievances that could spark future conflicts,” he explained.
He further warned that Rivers State may never return to political normalcy, as similar crises in the past have left lasting scars on governance, party loyalty, and public trust in leadership.
“We have seen such turmoil before. Amaechi had to fight hard to survive impeachment, allegedly orchestrated from Abuja at the time. But unlike Amaechi, Fubara lacks the political influence on challenge Wike’s grip on the state. This is a battle of political survival,” he added.
