Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are set to unveil a landmark “one in, one out” asylum agreement on Thursday, under which the UK will accept some migrants arriving via the Channel in exchange for returning others to France.
The deal, which will be announced during a joint press conference in London, is the centrepiece of President Macron’s three-day state visit to the UK, the first by a European leader since Brexit. The visit has included meetings with King Charles and a speech to MPs and peers in the Royal Gallery of the House of Commons.
While the full details of the agreement are still being finalised, officials from both countries confirmed that key hurdles, including opposition from other EU states, have been overcome. Negotiators were still discussing when the scheme would be implemented and how it would be funded as of Thursday morning.
Sources close to the talks described the process as “complex” and “fluid”. A French official said demands for additional UK funding to bolster French policing on the northern coast had proved “clearly very politically sensitive.”
According to a report published by Le Monde, the pilot scheme would see Britain return around 2,600 people per year, roughly 6% of those who cross the Channel, to France. In return, the UK would accept an equal number of asylum seekers.
The UK’s new Labour government hopes the move will mark a turning point in efforts to reduce small boat crossings. Labour officials credit progress to the decision to scrap the controversial Rwanda deportation plan and to Prime Minister Starmer’s improved diplomatic relationship with President Macron.
Government sources also pointed to previous Conservative-led negotiations that stalled due to French concerns about the UK’s “shadow economy” specifically, the risk that migrants could work illegally. In response, the UK’s new immigration white paper proposes equipping Border Force officers with biometric testing kits to identify those working without proper documentation.
The government has pledged to crack down on illegal employment to reassure French authorities, who fear Britain’s informal economy may continue to lure migrants across the Channel. Labour is also under pressure to demonstrate that its immigration strategy is more humane and effective than its predecessor’s, which faced criticism from rights groups and legal experts.
2023 UK’s “one or indeed more than one” asylum seeker
In March 2023, then-immigration minister Robert Jenrick advised the Sunak government to accept “one or indeed more than one” asylum seeker for each person returned to France, to undercut smuggling operations. However, that proposal never materialised into a formal agreement.
Labour’s progress on the issue also reflects Britain’s ongoing financial commitment to joint border enforcement. Two years ago, the UK signed a £480 million deal to support France with patrols, surveillance drones, and night-vision technology. France is now requesting further funding to expand enforcement, particularly at sea.
French authorities recently agreed to intercept migrant vessels up to 300 metres from their coastline, a significant shift in policy. However, officials in Paris are reportedly concerned about potential legal challenges in French courts, which could hinder the enforcement of the new measures.
With hours remaining until the official announcement, both sides were still negotiating the UK’s financial contribution to launching the system, as well as its starting date and projected capacity.
Despite the unresolved issues, the deal marks a significant diplomatic milestone in post-Brexit UK-EU relations, as both countries attempt to find common ground on migration, security, and border control.
