A highly classified U.S. government assessment has concluded that China would defeat the United States in a military conflict over Taiwan, warning that Beijing’s rapidly expanding arsenal and mass-production capabilities have overtaken the Pentagon’s traditional technological advantage. The Telegraph reported that Beijing’s hypersonic missiles “could sink U.S. aircraft carriers within minutes.”
The analysis, contained in a top-secret document known as the “Overmatch Brief”, states that China can manufacture weapons at a pace the US defence industry cannot match. While American strategy relies on sophisticated, high-cost platforms, Beijing is now capable of deploying cheaper alternatives in overwhelming numbers.
The Telegraph reported that a senior Biden administration national security official who reviewed the document turned pale after realising that China had “redundancy after redundancy for every trick we had up our sleeve.”
The implications are stark: losing Taiwan, long viewed by Washington as a key barrier against Chinese dominance in the western Pacific would constitute one of the most significant strategic and symbolic defeats in modern US history.
US Carriers Destroyed in Simulations
Wargames cited in the classified brief repeatedly show the US Navy’s most advanced ships, including the $13 billion USS Gerald R. Ford, being destroyed early in a conflict. The aircraft carrier, introduced in 2022 after years of delays, is said to be vulnerable to diesel-electric submarines and China’s estimated stockpile of 600 hypersonic missiles, which can travel at five times the speed of sound.
China has recently showcased its newest anti-ship capabilities, including the YJ-17 hypersonic missile, believed to reach speeds of Mach 8.
Despite this, the Pentagon plans to build nine more Ford-class carriers, even as the US has yet to field a single operational hypersonic missile.
US analysts who have participated in Taiwan conflict simulations say the results are consistently sobering.
Eric Gomez of the Taiwan Security Monitor told The Telegraph:
“The US loses a lot of ships, F-35s and other tactical aircraft very quickly. After-action summaries show over 100 fifth-generation aircraft lost, multiple destroyers, submarines and several carriers. The toll is staggering.”
Former Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth made similar warnings, stating last year that the US “loses every time” in Pentagon simulations, predicting that Chinese hypersonic missiles could destroy American carriers “within minutes.”
US Weapons Too Complex to Produce at Scale
The Overmatch Brief echoes concerns increasingly voiced within the Pentagon: that America’s most advanced weapons are also the hardest to mass-produce. Meanwhile, China has invested in high-volume manufacturing of simpler but highly lethal systems.
This vulnerability has been exposed by recent conflicts, from Gaza to Ukraine, where inexpensive drones and missiles have demonstrated devastating effectiveness.
Congress has recently allocated $1 billion to produce 340,000 small drones to begin rebuilding capacity.
Jake Sullivan, former US national security adviser, has warned that the US would run out of essential munitions within weeks in a war with China. Internal Pentagon assessments show Beijing holds overwhelming numerical superiority in cruise and ballistic missiles across almost every category.
Both nations retain roughly 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Compounding the threat, US officials confirm that China’s state-sponsored hacking unit, Volt Typhoon, has infiltrated critical American infrastructure, embedding malware in power grids, water systems and communication networks that support US military bases. Removing the malware has proven exceedingly difficult.
Analysts warn such cyber intrusions could cripple Washington’s ability to deploy forces quickly in a conflict over Taiwan.
Xi Jinping has described taking Taiwan as an “historical inevitability,” instructing the Chinese military to be ready to seize the island by 2027. However, intelligence assessments suggest Xi will not act unless China achieves an overwhelming military advantage, fearing that failure would be politically fatal.
The US maintains no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and since the 1970s has followed a policy of strategic ambiguity, avoiding explicit guarantees to defend the island.
Yet Washington is legally required to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons, and successive administrations—from Eisenhower to Biden—have described the island as a crucial buffer against Chinese expansion.
Donald Trump, who recently reaffirmed strategic ambiguity, has questioned the financial burden of defending Taiwan, saying:
“Taiwan should pay us for defence. We’re no different from an insurance company.”
The Overmatch Brief adds to growing anxiety inside the Pentagon that the US may be technologically innovative, but strategically outpaced.
America’s shrinking defence-industrial base, now dominated by five major firms, down from more than fifty in the 1990s, has left the country reliant on weapons that cannot be replenished quickly. China, by contrast, has developed the world’s largest shipbuilding, drone and missile industries.
