Narendra Modi will arrive in China this weekend for his first visit in seven years, placing him alongside Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at a moment of deepening strains between Delhi and Washington.
The Indian prime minister is due in Tianjin on Sunday for a regional security summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), just days after the United States doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%. Washington cited India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil as the reason for the move.
The sharp escalation has unsettled years of strengthening ties between Delhi and Washington, built around technology and shared efforts to counter Beijing. “Indian trust in the US is shattered,” said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst. “I’m not sure whether US officials fully realise how much trust they have squandered in such a short time.”
For Beijing, Modi’s presence is well-timed. Relations between India and China, frozen after deadly clashes on the Himalayan border in 2020, began to ease after Modi and Xi met last October at a Brics summit in Russia. “Modi will be in China at a moment when India-China relations are stabilising and India-US relations have gone south. It is a powerful optic,” Kugelman added.
“No doubt there are some in China who are revelling in the trade tensions between India and the US,” said Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru.
Russia, too, is expected to use the moment to reinforce ties with Delhi. “Putin would want to capitalise on the moment by reasserting Russia’s close relationship with India,” Kugelman said, noting that the summit would provide an opportunity for Moscow, Beijing and Delhi to present a united front against Washington.
US officials have accused India of acting as an “oil money laundromat for the Kremlin”, in the words of Donald Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro. India has rejected such criticism, insisting its oil purchases are essential to stabilise energy prices at home and abroad and fully comply with international law. Modi has avoided condemning Russia directly over the war in Ukraine, instead calling for peace.
Indian officials say that while Delhi wants to preserve its partnership with Washington, it must diversify its alliances. “India cannot afford to appear as though it is giving in to US pressure on oil imports, or anything else that could be construed as a capitulation and public anger is high,” one official said.
In an early response to the US tariffs, Delhi this week launched an export drive targeting 40 countries from the UK to South Korea to boost textile trade.
Before arriving in China, Modi travelled to Tokyo for the annual India-Japan summit with prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. The visit has assumed added importance in light of the tariffs, with both nations looking to deepen co-operation in defence, technology and investment.
Japanese companies are expected to invest up to ¥10tn (£54bn) in India over the next decade, according to NHK, with Suzuki Motor alone pledging $8bn over the next five to six years. Modi described India and Japan as “partners made for each other” after visiting a Suzuki plant earlier this week.
Talks are expected to include joint projects on critical minerals and Japanese backing for high-value manufacturing in India. Delhi is believed to hold significant deposits of rare earths, crucial for smartphones and renewable energy technologies, but lacks the means to exploit them on its own.
