Dozens of Labour MPs rebelling against Sir Keir Starmer’s proposed welfare cuts could lose their seats at the next election if benefit claimants turn against the party.
The Prime Minister is facing the most significant rebellion of his leadership over controversial plans to cut Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) , the latter a benefit supporting people with disabilities.
The proposed changes, designed to save £5 billion annually, have triggered widespread discontent after the government’s impact assessment warned that around 50,000 children could be pushed into poverty as a result.
More than 120 Labour MPs have signed a rebel amendment demanding that the government abandon the plans. If supported by the opposition, including Conservatives or minor parties, the rebellion could result in Starmer’s first Commons defeat since becoming Prime Minister.
Analysis shows that 51 of the rebel MPs represent constituencies where the number of PIP claimants exceeds the size of their electoral majority, leaving them especially vulnerable to backlash. Many of these seats are already marginal and under threat from Reform UK, which has made notable gains, particularly in so-called Red Wall constituencies.
Starmer may water down policy elements
Despite signs that Starmer may water down elements of the policy to reduce the risk of rebellion, many backbenchers are standing firm, fearing the long-term political cost. Labour MPs say they were elected on promises to protect vulnerable and low-income constituents, a pledge they now believe is under threat.
MPs have also expressed frustration that while Labour pushes through contentious policies in Westminster, they are left to defend them to angry constituents at the weekends. One rebel MP said the rebellion is democracy in action, adding: “We are responding to the issues raised in our constituencies.”
Some of the most vocal opponents include Neil Duncan-Jordan, a rebel leader with a slim 18-vote majority, and Tan Dhesi, one of the highest-profile MPs supporting the amendment. Others, like Cat Eccles, have gone further, suggesting they are prepared to lose the party whip over the issue.
Speaking to the media, Eccles said: “The number of MPs willing to vote against the Government is much bigger than we imagine.”
The analysis also reveals a clear trend: constituencies with higher numbers of PIP claimants are more likely to be marginal Labour-Reform battlegrounds. In those at-risk seats, Labour’s average polling lead over Reform is just 21%, compared with 36% elsewhere.
Under the proposed changes, eligibility for PIP will be tightened, with the Office for Budget Responsibility estimating that one in four current claimants could lose access to the benefit. While Starmer argues the system is broken and the rising costs are unsustainable, with 1,000 new claims being processed daily and many Labour supporters see the reforms as a betrayal of the party’s core values.
PIP is separate from Universal Credit and specifically helps disabled people with the additional costs of daily life. Critics warn that any cuts would disproportionately harm some of the most vulnerable citizens.
Polling expert, Sir John Curtice, said that although public support for expanding welfare has dropped, there is little appetite among Labour voters for cutting it. “Among Labour supporters, twice as many say it’s too hard to claim benefits as say it’s too easy,” he noted.
Luke Tryl, director of the research group More in Common, warned that Starmer is now navigating a fragile political coalition. “It’s an unwieldy coalition to hold together on difficult issues like welfare,” he said. “Making tough choices means some parts of the coalition will feel left behind.”
While Labour maintains that reform is necessary to bring the welfare system under control, the party now risks alienating a key segment of its base just one year into Starmer’s premiership. With a crucial Commons vote looming and pressure mounting, the Prime Minister must now decide whether to hold firm or make deeper concessions to avoid a political crisis within his ranks.
