Boris Johnson’s rumored return to politics has taken a major blow, as a new poll shows Nigel Farage pulling far ahead of him in key Red Wall seats. The survey, conducted by Merlin Strategy and shared with GB News, shows Farage leading Johnson by 15 points among voters in these former Labour strongholds.
The poll reveals that just 12% of Red Wall voters would pick Johnson as their top choice, compared to 27% for Farage, leader of Reform UK. While Johnson does outperform current Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (8%), he remains far behind in terms of support. In terms of the top three preferred candidates for Prime Minister, Farage still leads with 44%. Johnson and Labour leader Keir Starmer tie at 39%, while Badenoch trails behind with 33%.
Conservative MP Robert Jenrick, seen as another possible leadership candidate, fares even worse, with only 3% naming him as their first choice and 24% placing him in their top three.
Scarlett Maguire, founder of Merlin Strategy, said the numbers paint a grim picture for the Conservative Party:
“All three Conservative big names fall short of Nigel Farage in the Red Wall. Even if Johnson returns, it doesn’t look like enough to bring the party out of third place right now.”
The poll also highlights major shifts in party support:
• Reform UK now has 34% support in the Red Wall, a big jump from just 7% when it was the Brexit Party in 2019.
• Labour has dropped to 27%, down from 41% last year.
• The Conservatives have fallen to 22%, less than half of the 47% support they had under Johnson in 2019.
Boris Johnson led the Tories to win 33 Red Wall seats in 2019 and even added Hartlepool in a 2021 by-election. But Labour, under Starmer, flipped 34 of 36 Brexit-voting seats in the Midlands and North in 2024, tightening their grip in the region. Despite his growing unpopularity in the polls, Johnson remains more favored than Badenoch among 2019 Conservative voters. About 40% still rank him as their number one choice, though Farage leads with 31%. However, Reform insiders say Johnson’s record on immigration — especially the 872,000 net migration figure in 2022 — could be a major weakness.
“Boris opened the doors to mass migration like never before,” one Reform UK source said.
“Red Wall voters have watched their communities change because of his choices. Thinking he can win them back is simply unrealistic.”
Johnson has recently returned to the spotlight, publicly criticizing Labour’s Brexit policy and warning against the UK becoming “a puppet of Brussels.” He also took aim at Starmer’s leadership after the rejection of an appeal in the high-profile Lucy Connolly case.
As Kemi Badenoch struggles following poor local election results, some Conservative MPs are reportedly trying to bring Johnson back to the frontline. But the new polling shows that even his return may not be enough to revive the party’s fortunes in the Red Wall.
One senior Tory insider said:
“Boris is still the wildcard. If the party needs someone to shake things up, he’s the one Labour and Reform fear the most.”
But for now, the numbers speak for themselves — and they show a Conservative Party in crisis, with Reform UK rising fast.
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