A cross-party group of MPs has launched an inquiry into the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), following intense scrutiny of the government’s economic watchdog in the run-up to the Budget.
The Treasury Committee will assess the OBR’s first 15 years, including its remit, performance, independence and potential areas for reform.
The move follows heightened debate over the OBR’s influence, particularly after its chair, Richard Hughes, resigned when the body mistakenly published key economic forecasts an hour before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Budget speech.
Despite the controversy, committee chair Dame Meg Hillier stressed that the inquiry “is not a stick to beat the OBR with”.
The OBR is responsible for producing forecasts, assessing the cost of government policies and determining whether the chancellor is on track to meet fiscal rules. But its role came under renewed scrutiny when it downgraded productivity forecasts ahead of the Budget a change Reeves warned could constrain her spending plans.
It later emerged that higher-than-expected tax receipts offset the downgrade, sparking accusations that Reeves misrepresented the fiscal outlook, which she denied.
Professor David Miles of the OBR told MPs that Reeves’ comments were “not inconsistent” with the data, while also confirming the watchdog had raised concerns about Treasury leaks ahead of the Budget. Reeves has since backed a probe into those leaks.
Dame Meg noted that critics often misunderstand or overstate the its influence, adding that Liz Truss’s mini-budget served as a reminder of the risks of sidelining independent oversight.
The inquiry will evaluate how well the OBR communicates its analysis, whether its forecasting processes have improved Treasury operations, and what reforms may be needed to strengthen its transparency, resources and long-term role.
She said the findings would help guide the organisation’s next chair once appointed.
