The UK’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in October, buoyed by the reopening of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) plants and stronger consumer spending, according to the latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
The index rose to 49.7, its highest level in a year, up from 46.2 in September, signalling a significant rebound in industrial activity.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Factory output surged, with a key sub-index climbing to 51.6 from 45.7, marking a clear turnaround after months of contraction.
The revival was largely driven by Jaguar Land Rover, the UK’s largest carmaker, which resumed production after a cyber-attack that had disrupted operations and was estimated to have cost the economy nearly £1.9 billion.
The restart has triggered a positive ripple effect across the automotive supply chain.
Also, increased consumer spending on new vehicles and steady demand for industrial components helped lift production levels.
Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, said the recovery could gain momentum, citing rising real wages, government incentives for green technologies, and improved export competitiveness due to the weaker pound.
He added that discounted electricity network charges for energy-intensive industries would also ease cost pressures.
However, Mike Thornton of RSM UK cautioned that it remains uncertain whether the October rebound signals a sustained recovery.
“Following Jaguar Land Rover’s phased production restart, it’s likely that this has created a ripple effect throughout the supply chain,” he said. “But only time will tell if it’s temporary.”
Despite the improvement, manufacturers continue to face challenges from high energy prices, rising wages, and increased employment taxes. Industry groups, including the CBI, British Chambers of Commerce, and Make UK, have urged the chancellor to provide targeted relief in the upcoming budget.
Rob Dobson of S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that business optimism, while improving, remains below its long-run average.
“Manufacturers seem to be in a holding pattern until domestic policy and geopolitical conditions stabilise,” he said.
