By Eniola Amadu
Public services in Wales could face severe funding cuts if Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford fails to win cross-party support for the Welsh government’s £27bn budget, which he begins publishing on Tuesday.
The budget sets out spending plans for 2026–27, covering vital services from hospitals to waste collection.
While the Labour government will present the proposals, it lacks the votes in the Senedd to pass them without help from other parties.
A pending by-election in Caerphilly could make the task even more challenging.
If Labour loses the seat, it would weaken its already fragile position, leaving the party with fewer options for securing the majority needed to approve the spending plan.
Drakeford, who has pledged a budget aimed at minimising political disputes, acknowledged that negotiations are unavoidable.
Drakeford said he does not want to “tie the hands” of the next Welsh government, as this will be the final budget before next year’s Senedd election.
First Minister Eluned Morgan has also hinted that the final version will look “very different” from the initial draft, which is due to go through several months of scrutiny and revision before the final vote on 27 January.
With exactly half of the Senedd’s 60 seats, Labour cannot pass the budget on its own.
Historically, the party has relied on deals with smaller parties to push through spending plans.
Last year, Drakeford secured passage with the support of Liberal Democrat MS Jane Dodds after both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives voted against it.
However, Dodds’s single vote may not be enough this time if Labour loses the Caerphilly by-election.
Dodds’s spokesperson said she “recognised what was at stake for public services” and that she is “ready to listen and work with other parties,” unlike Plaid and the Conservatives, who opposed the last budget.
The Welsh Conservatives have called for a budget that “delivers for the taxpayer,” saying they would scrap the land transaction tax, Wales’s version of stamp duty.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has not ruled out discussions but said, “It’s Labour’s budget.”
Reform UK, which has one MS, said it would not back a budget that continues funding the Nation of Sanctuary policy.
If the Senedd fails to pass the budget by April, the government will only be permitted to spend 75% of last year’s funds, triggering potential “mass redundancies,” according to Morgan.
The limit rises to 95% if the deadlock continues beyond July, though the government could reintroduce the budget later in the year.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s upcoming UK budget will influence how much funding Wales ultimately receives.
Detailed allocations for Welsh departments are expected on 3 November, followed by weeks of political bargaining and scrutiny.
