Britain’s economy is on course for a historic decline in global prosperity, with living standards expected to fall behind those of Malaysia, Poland and Turkey by 2050, according to new analysis published this week.
The report, cited by The Telegraph, projects that the UK’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) will slide from 25th place in 2000 to 46th by 2050 , overtaken by Poland as early as 2034 and by Turkey less than a decade later, in 2043.
The grim forecast comes as new fiscal data reveal that the British government is borrowing far more than expected due to disappointing tax revenues from the country’s wealthiest individuals. Lower receipts from capital gains tax, self-assessed income, and financial sector bonuses have widened the fiscal gap, presenting a major challenge for Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of next month’s Budget.
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At the same time, a growing list of wealthy entrepreneurs and non-domiciled residents are relocating abroad to escape the UK’s tax regime. Dubai, Italy and Greece have emerged as popular destinations for Britain’s richest émigrés. Last week, Richard Gnodde, Goldman Sachs’ most senior banker outside the United States, and billionaire brothers Ian and Richard Livingstone joined the exodus by changing their tax domicile.
Economists warn that without structural reform, Britain’s economic stagnation could deepen. The report urges the government to act decisively to restore competitiveness, attract investment, and encourage innovation.
“With the right policies and determination, there is a real opportunity for strong growth,” said Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, in an interview for the forthcoming book Britain 2050: Choices for Renewal. The publication notes that the UK still boasts the world’s third-largest e-commerce market and ranks third globally in artificial intelligence capability — evidence, it argues, that Britain retains considerable untapped potential.
Former Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair added that political gridlock could be overcome “with good leadership and surprising ease.”
The book sets out a comprehensive reform agenda to reverse the UK’s relative decline. Among its proposals: restoring pre-2015 tax conditions for private landlords to revive the rental market; adopting a “smart net zero” strategy to cut energy prices; and liberalising the labour market to make hiring and firing more flexible. It also recommends replacing all motoring taxes with a transparent road-pricing scheme and focusing future trade deals on services rather than goods, which now account for nearly 70% of UK exports.
Citing evidence from international comparisons, the authors argue that countries with lower tax burdens — such as the United States, Poland, and post-communist states in Eastern Europe — have consistently achieved stronger growth. U.S. states like Florida, Texas, and Tennessee are highlighted as examples where low taxation has driven faster expansion.
As Britain enters an era shaped by artificial intelligence, automation, and global power shifts, the report concludes that only radical change can restore national prosperity. Reeves’s forthcoming Budget, it warns, may be the “last chance” to lay the foundations for long-term growth before the next election.
