Following Manchester City’s stunning 3-3 draw against Feyenoord in the Champions League last November, a game where they squandered a 3-0 lead in a mere 15 minutes, a palpable sense of concern permeated the dressing room. The worry wasn’t solely about the team’s performance, but rather the unsettling demeanor of Pep Guardiola. The result served as a stark confirmation: City was in crisis, their season teetering on the brink of collapse. The dream of lifting the European Cup once again, a goal Guardiola had passionately shared with City owner Sheikh Mansour the previous summer in Abu Dhabi, appeared increasingly unattainable. This grim reality was later cemented by their inevitable play-off exit to Real Madrid, marking the first time under Guardiola’s leadership that they failed to reach the last 16.
In those moments, after enduring a string of five consecutive defeats, City had seemingly rediscovered their winning formula, only to have it snatched away in the 74th minute, exposing their underlying insecurities and vulnerabilities. These shortcomings were etched across Guardiola’s face. Throughout the game, the City manager was observed nervously scratching at his skin, drawing blood with his fingernails. Upon entering the dressing room, some players were taken aback by his visibly blotchy complexion. While they were accustomed to Guardiola’s intense passion and eccentricities, this felt different, more profound.
Later, Guardiola reportedly retreated to the solitude of his office, seeking solace. He appeared to have had a restless night. The following day, staff members recounted encountering a bleary-eyed manager at the training ground, his mood still somber. “It is not a good morning,” he allegedly confessed, perhaps having privately acknowledged that he and City had miscalculated this season, and a reckoning was inevitable.
Much of the scrutiny inevitably centers on Guardiola himself, the most celebrated manager of his generation. Yet, he is also a figure known for an intensity that exacts a heavy toll on both himself and those around him. This intensity was a key factor in his departure from Barcelona, where the stress triggered chronic back problems, leading to a year-long sabbatical in New York. It also played a role in his exit from Bayern Munich after three consecutive Champions League semi-final defeats.
Even those closest to him express surprise that he has remained at City for nearly nine years, having signed a two-year contract extension last November, just five days before the fateful Feyenoord match. The initial expectation was that he would commit for only another 12 months. Some suggest he is in dire need of another break.
Guardiola has since maintained that he harbors no regrets about extending his commitment until 2027. Sources indicate that part of his motivation was to rectify the situation with a squad clearly in need of a rebuild. Nevertheless, the reality remains that if Guardiola were to approach City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak seeking an immediate departure, the club would not stand in his way, such is the depth of their relationship.
Concerns persist regarding the immense pressure Guardiola faces, the pressure he imposes upon himself, and the long-term sustainability of such intensity. He recently offered two revealing interviews. In one, with Spanish chef Dani Garcia, he spoke of the “loneliness of the football manager” and the absence of “consolation” in defeat once “you close that bedroom door and turn off the light.”
The mind drifts back to that night after the Feyenoord debacle.
In the other interview, conducted last December with his friend and former teammate Luca Toni, Guardiola candidly disclosed how football impacts his health, revealing that he suffers from a skin condition requiring antihistamines – hence the blotches after the Feyenoord game – and that he struggles to “digest food properly,” sometimes subsisting solely on soup in the evenings.
In fairness, Guardiola has never eaten on match days until after the game, even during periods of triumph. Afterward, he sometimes indulges in Spanish ham and a glass of red wine, passionately recounting every detail of the match to those around him. Even then, he remains restless and constantly on the move.
Guardiola insisted he was “fine” just days later, but he has frequently alluded to feeling as though he is not “good enough” during this slump. Initially, this seemed like a tactic to deflect pressure, perhaps even a form of faux humility, but it is in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Adding to the concern is a comment from Manel Estiarte, City’s head of player support and protocol, and a close confidant, who mentioned the “law of 32 minutes” – the time he estimated Guardiola could discuss another subject before inevitably returning to football.
Such relentless focus must be exhausting, and it was revealing how emotionally Guardiola spoke about Jürgen Klopp when the German announced his departure from Liverpool, citing a lack of energy to continue. There was genuine empathy.
There is also a sensitive matter that remains largely unspoken. Only Guardiola truly knows the toll that his separation from his wife and partner of 30 years, Cristina Serra, has taken on him, however amicable the split. But that is, undeniably, a private matter.
Tactical Shortcomings and the Void Left by Rodri
Even before the second leg against Real Madrid, Guardiola was at it again. “Rodri is one of the reasons for the slump,” he declared. “Who doesn’t lose without the best player in the world? Without Messi, I don’t know if we would have won the treble in Barcelona.”
Speaking in Madrid, where there remains resentment that Vinicius Junior was overlooked for the Ballon d’Or in favor of Rodri, and mentioning Messi once more, Guardiola was deliberately provoking.
However, it also underscored the profound impact of Rodri’s absence due to a ruptured anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, sustained in September against Arsenal. Some within City believe that no other player in Europe is as crucial to their team. It is somewhat ironic, given the criticism Guardiola once faced for labeling Tottenham Hotspur the “Harry Kane team.”
The loss of Rodri appears to have destabilized the manager as much as his starting XI. The statistics are compelling: with Rodri, City has won 192 games, drawn 42, and lost just 29 in all competitions. Without him, the record is significantly worse: 62 wins, 16 draws, and 35 losses. This translates to a loss rate of 11% with him compared to 31% without him. No other player has had such a dramatic impact.
The situation has been exacerbated by the failure of any of his potential understudies, most notably Kalvin Phillips, to adequately fill the void. Guardiola has also faced the challenge of injuries to his center-backs and the continual reshuffling of his defense, compounded by Kyle Walker’s declining form.
Despite these challenges, there has been some surprise that Guardiola has not adapted his tactics. For instance, he continues to instruct his players to press high and aggressively, but their lack of energy, legs, and physicality in midfield has created vast spaces for opponents to exploit, which they have done with alarming regularity.
Remarkably for a Guardiola team, City no longer retain possession as effectively as they once did. He attributes this to anxiety, preventing them from “resting with the ball,” lamenting, “We were able to do sequences of 20, 25, 30 passes, now we are not able to do that.”
This has created a vicious cycle, forcing players to chase possession, leading to increased fatigue and potential injuries.
There has also been bewilderment at some of Guardiola’s substitutions, particularly in the first leg against Madrid, when he moved John Stones from midfield, where he had been so effective, to accommodate Mateo Kovacic, who struggled.
This necessitated using Rico Lewis at right-back, where he was unable to contain Vinicius Junior. Guardiola would argue that he had little choice, with several players returning from injury and tiring. Nevertheless, his changes, typically a hallmark of his management, did not yield the desired results, appearing symptomatic of the team’s overall malaise.
Climbing the Mountain Anew
When City secured the Treble in 2022-23, Guardiola gathered his squad during the following pre-season and projected an image of a mountain on a large screen, symbolizing that they were back at the bottom and needed to begin climbing again.
He was uncertain how they would respond, even if, for him, there was a prize as significant as the Treble, or perhaps even greater. Guardiola places immense value on records. He frequently mentions City’s status as the only Premier League club to achieve 100 points in a title-winning season, along with other accomplishments. While they were not the first to win the Treble (Manchester United achieved that in 1998-99), Guardiola knew that no English club had ever won the title four seasons in a row. He coveted that distinction, viewing it as an even greater achievement.
There was always a lingering fear last season that City would falter, that the pressure would prove too great. However, they persevered, and Guardiola felt deeply indebted to his players for achieving what he will likely regard as an even more remarkable feat: four consecutive titles, surpassing even Sir Alex Ferguson’s accomplishments.
Perhaps this success led Guardiola to delay what felt inevitable: the need to overhaul an aging squad. Instead, Guardiola believed they had earned the right to try again, having done so the previous year. It is said that director of football Txiki Begiristain held a different view, as evidenced in the in-house documentary “Together: 4-In-A-Row,” where he stated: “The [summer 2023] transfer window was a bit awful, at least for me. After winning the Treble, everyone was confused. The protagonists were thinking they should get more or new contracts and take the opportunities. And the ones who didn’t play in finals were p—– off and trying to get out of the club.”
Walker was among those seeking an exit, and Thomas Tuchel believed he had convinced the full-back to join him at Bayern Munich, only for Guardiola to persuade him to stay over a personal dinner. Tellingly, Walker, despite being captain, did not complete the season and was allowed to leave during the January window.
This meant that City failed to address their shortcomings. Last summer, their only transfer expenditure was on Savinho, a £33 million signing from French club Troyes, while 34-year-old Ilkay Gundogan returned for free from Barcelona.
Allowing Julián Alvarez to leave for Atletico Madrid, albeit for a substantial profit of £81.5 million, was a mistake, or at least failing to replace him was. “I would have liked him to continue with us, but he wanted to play more,” Guardiola said before lamenting, “With the injuries this season, he would have played much more.”
Normally, City plans transfer windows at least 18 months in advance, but they faltered this time, with Guardiola admitting he erred in placing too much faith in an aging group of players.
The Last Dance?
“No, I don’t know. It will be at the end of the season,” Guardiola said when asked whether this was the last chance for several of his older players and if decisions had been made about their future. While he may have to say that publicly, it feels like the last dance for many, even with the FA Cup and the Club World Cup still to play for. However, City expects to compete for the biggest prizes.
Guardiola believes that City has been hit by a perfect storm. They have left themselves short, partly because he has always preferred to work with a smaller squad, but he is finding the demands of the game and the fixture schedule too much.
Ten players are 30 or older and have been overused. Another two will reach that age this year. Guardiola has been loyal and argued that age is just a number, but clubs typically adhere to age banding to ensure their squads are not overly reliant on any one group. This is especially true for older players who, like Kevin De Bruyne, inevitably break down or, like Gundogan, cannot run as they once did. Simultaneously, John Stones, Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji, and Ruben Dias are injured too frequently.
In the past, rebuilding has been a relatively smooth process. Yaya Toure departed in 2018, Vincent Kompany in 2019, David Silva in 2020, Sergio Agüero in 2021, and Fernandinho in 2022. It felt planned and deliberately phased. However, for the first time, City faces losing three to five players simultaneously who have formed the core of their success since 2017. Walker has already left, initially on loan but likely permanently in the summer, and could be followed by Gundogan and De Bruyne, both out of contract, and Ederson. Like goalkeeper Ederson, Bernardo Silva and Stones will have one year left, while there is significant uncertainty surrounding Jack Grealish’s future.
De Bruyne’s exasperating situation epitomizes the problem. The 33-year-old is one of the Premier League’s greats but cannot stay fit enough during what he has described as his “most frustrating year.” Not long ago, it would have been unthinkable for him not to start against Madrid.
It is not just the older players who have struggled, with Phil Foden also facing challenges for various reasons after reaching such heights last season. Several signings, such as Phillips, Kovacic, and Matheus Nunes, are simply not proving good enough.
City has held back on transfers since 2021, with only £77 million Josko Gvardiol making it into the top nine most expensive signings. However, this is slightly misleading, given the financial outlay involved in acquiring Erling Haaland, beyond triggering the £51 million release clause in his Borussia Dortmund contract.
Haaland is the future. The 24-year-old has been promoted to City’s leadership group, captained them against Newcastle United last weekend, and recently signed a remarkable 10-year contract. However, he needs more support.
There was an exciting glimpse of the future in that 4-0 demolition of Newcastle, with three January signings impressing: Omar Marmoush, with a hat-trick, midfielder Nico González, and defender Abdukodir Khusanov. All three also started against Madrid. With Oscar Bobb returning from long-term injury, the future looks promising.
Begiristain’s Long Goodbye
In October, it was announced that Begiristain was “stepping away” from his role as City’s director of football after “12 trophy-laden years.” This meant he was leaving. The importance of the former midfielder for Barcelona, where his friendship with Guardiola began, cannot be overstated. There would be no Guardiola at City without Begiristain, that relationship was crucial to bringing him there, and now Begiristain is departing.
When Begiristain was finally granted his wish to leave, having originally hoped to depart when he was 55 but being persuaded to stay beyond his 60th birthday, it was insisted that the decision would not affect Guardiola’s choice about his own future.
In reality, it has. Given City’s troubles, the fact that Begiristain is leaving has undoubtedly made it harder for Guardiola to leave, if that was what he had been considering. He felt duty-bound to Khaldoon to stay, and so there was no decision to make beyond the length of the deal.
Also, did Begiristain’s decision to leave mean that he took his eye off the ball when it came to the City rebuild? This will be strongly denied, especially as he was advocating change the previous summer. Yet, it may well be that once he knew he definitely had only one more season, he felt it was appropriate to allow his successor to oversee more wholesale changes. That is not unreasonable.
Interestingly, Begiristain chose his successor: Hugo Viana, the former Newcastle and Portugal midfielder, who was poached from Sporting Lisbon. City believed that no one had a better understanding of who was top-notch in sporting director circles, and Begiristain had been hugely impressed with Viana’s work and eye for talent, not just with players. Viana was also central to hiring Ruben Amorim as head coach at Sporting.
It appears Viana has accelerated his role. He and Begiristain had a private meeting in Manchester on January 9. Viana was initially due to see out the season with Sporting but left at the end of the January window and has been in contact with the man he is succeeding. This should help City with the transition and bodes well for the summer.
Indeed, Viana was involved in City’s January signings, when the club spent £180 million in recognition of just how much of a mess they had gotten themselves into. Marmoush, González, Khusanov, and Vitor Reis arrived.
To put that in perspective, the only first-team player previously bought under Guardiola in a January window who went straight into the squad was Aymeric Laporte for £57 million in 2018. Now, three were starting against Newcastle and Madrid.
More significant activity is expected in the summer, with departures and arrivals. However, this is complicated by City’s involvement in the Club World Cup, which runs potentially until July 13 and which they are determined to win again.
The 115 Charges
When the Premier League’s charges against City for alleged breaches of their financial rules were first announced, Guardiola undoubtedly used them as fuel.
In February 2023, the month when the charges were confirmed, he declared: “My first thought is we’re already being condemned. It’s the same with Uefa, we were already condemned. The club proved we were completely innocent. You know on what side I am.”
He could not have been more robust or defiant.
Guardiola, who was reassured by Khaldoon and City’s chief executive Ferran Soriano, has been consistent ever since and has continued to come out fighting. He even claimed the club’s critics wanted them “wiped from the face of the Earth.”
Guardiola announced he would continue to manage City if they were demoted and did not ask for a relegation clause to be included in the new contract he signed. However, it is clear that if he did want to leave, the club would not stand in his way.
What effect have the charges had? Guardiola has had to periodically answer questions, and earlier this month stated that the club expects to hear the outcome in March, which has undoubtedly been a distraction and an irritation.
Quantifying the effect on the team and Guardiola’s coaching is much more difficult. However, the situation cannot have helped.
There has also been City’s increasingly bitter legal dispute with the Premier League over its associated party transactions (APT) rules. Last week, City won a resounding victory in the latest round of their battle after the rules between 2021 and 2024 were declared void and unenforceable, opening up the possibility of further court action from other clubs.
In fact, it has been their best result of what has, so far, been a stunningly poor campaign, made all the more shocking given the personalities and players involved.
