By Helen Okechukwu, Fatimah Idera
It has been weeks of speculation, as former President Goodluck Jonathan once again finds himself at the centre of Nigeria’s political controversy, following several hints that he may throw his hat into the ring for the forthcoming 2027 presidential election.
The most recent speculation came from the former Minister of Information and National Orientation, Prof. Jerry Gana, who recently declared that Jonathan, who held power between 2010 and 2015, will contest the 2027 presidential election on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Prof. Gana expressed optimism about former President Goodluck Jonathan emerging as Nigeria’s 17th president. He recalled that in 2015, “former President Goodluck Jonathan said his ambition was not worth the blood of Nigerians.” After him, another president ruled for eight years, and now another has ruled for two years. Nigerians can see the difference.
Prof. Gana, who described the current situation in Nigeria as “different and very clear,” noted that there is a strong demand among Nigerians to bring back the former president.
PDP Reacts to Jerry Gana’s Claim on Jonathan’s 2027 Presidential Bid
The PDP, in a recent statement, distanced itself from and dismissed a purported state congress held in Calabar, Cross River State, describing it as an unauthorised “hallucination.”
Reacting to this, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, acknowledged that Jonathan is free to contest the forthcoming 2027 election but warned that his dismal record in office remains renewed in the minds of Nigerians.
Read Also: 2027 Presidency: Jandor urges Jonathan to stay retired, warns against challenging Tinubu
Despite large speculation, Jonathan has yet to react to the speculation.
Analysts Weigh In
New Daily Prime, at the height of the speculations, spoke with public interventionist and Professor of African Literature in the Department of English Studies, Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba Akoko (AAUA), Prof. Busuyi Mekusi, who said the possibility of Jonathan returning as President of Nigeria in the forthcoming 2027 election is slim, noting that it would require strong political power and structure. He also reflected on Jonathan’s previous administration during his tenure under the PDP.
“We need to ask ourselves two basic questions: What was the state of the PDP before it was ousted in 2015? And what did Jonathan bring to the table during his six years in office? For me, the past always seems glorious because the present is not. Yet, while rethinking Jonathan’s legacy, we should not forget that the PDP mismanaged itself.
“There was a huge conspiracy against Jonathan in 2015, particularly by the northern political establishment, because they felt he was going to deny them the opportunity to produce the next president — a conspiracy that still defines Nigeria’s political life today. We also need to look at Jonathan’s administration: corruption was rife, the subsidy scandal was widely known, and insecurity was alarmingly high.”
He said, looking at the present challenges facing Nigeria currently, he noted that Jonathan is not the best presidential candidate for the country.
“He cannot be the best. You see, to use the word ‘best’ for me, it’s very sacred,” Prof. Mekusi expressed. “Because there are other good hands that could be considered. Even hands that have not been tried. If it’s a matter of producing or raising somebody from the south. There are people with impressive credentials. With demonstrative career accomplishments and attainments globally. So why is Jonathan? What magic wand has he got? But for me, it is reckless. If anybody is putting Jonathan forward as the only solution we can have as a nation.
He reflected on the 2014 abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls, highlighting the security scandal that generated controversy. The expert argued that the Jonathan administration “lacked political will” and appeared “clueless” in handling pressing national challenges.
The expert criticised what he termed Nigeria’s “deficiency in reasoning,” noting that rather than focusing on new and capable leaders, political discourse has been reduced to the recycling of old figures. He referenced a statement recently issued by presidential aide Bayo Onanuga, which highlighted the failings of the Jonathan era, while stressing that Nigerians must not continue to rely on the mismanagement of the past to address today’s challenges.
The Zoning Debate and Nigeria’s Constitution
On the constitutional debate, the expert noted that the 2010 Electoral Act, later amended under President Muhammadu Buhari, restricts any president or governor from being sworn into office more than twice. However, some lawyers argue that Jonathan may not fall under that provision since his initial swearing-in predated the amendment.
“We also know that the law is a two-edged sword. And Bayo Onunuga also raised that in his own statement. To say, look, that might be an amicus. But we need maybe the Supreme Court to make a statement on this. Because we also have some governors who are caught in that web,” he explained.
Beyond legality, he stressed the moral implications of a Jonathan comeback, “So if you also look at the morality there. I believe that Jonathan shouldn’t be in a hurry to be goaded to return. Because of the exclusivity that pushed him out in the first place.
He also added that the PDP “shot itself in the foot” in 2023 by failing to strictly enforce its zoning principle. Popular opinion, he explained, was that power should have shifted to the South after the late President Buhari’s eight-year tenure. Instead, the party fielded candidates from the North, a decision that created deep internal contradictions.
“Even though the year of zoning is not absolutely curated. But we also know that being a political index, we also know that it’s part of the way to balance power,” the public interventionist observed.
“If the PDP caught itself in the web of its own contradiction in 2023. I believe that is the reason why the PDP is already singing the tune. That his president will be zoned to the south in 2027. If that is happening, that will also appeal to the sensibilities of the people. But some have also argued that if we look at the return of democracy since 1999.
“The South has produced more presidents. More presidents from the southern hemisphere. Occupy the presidency more than people of a northern extraction. But do they think Tinubu will just spend only 4 years after 8 years of Buhari? And somebody will want to know. So whether we like it or not, this is also a very serious matter.
“That is why the PDP is already singing the tune that its 2027 presidential ticket will go to the South. Such a move could appeal to public sensibilities, but it will also trigger debates about equity. Since 1999, the South has produced more presidents than the North, and people will ask if Tinubu should spend only four years after Buhari’s eight.”
According to him, any decision involving Jonathan’s comeback will not only affect PDP’s power rotation formula but also reverberate across other political parties.
On questions about Jonathan’s potential support base, Prof. Mekusi noted that predicting voting patterns would be speculative at this stage, given the uncertain field of candidates.
“Definitely, he is going to get support from across the country. But mainly speaking, the support in Gana will be from the south-south and the south-east. And if he is going to be on, definitely, you will not expect the South; that only the South will generate the presidency.
“There is no way you can explain that. So it’s not going to depend on who his next presidential candidate is. It depends on the type of north and how powerful such a person is. But for me, like I said, it’s going to be highly speculative. Because of the number of aspirants that we mentioned as candidates,” he explained.
He cautioned against assuming an easy path to power, “You can imagine if he (Jonathan) is being fitted by a political party. Atiku is being fitted by a political party. Tinubu is on the ballot. So I can assure you that it is not going to be a very quick fix. Things will be very quick. And the government will still favour the incumbent president. Because that is the truth of the matter.”
Mekusi concluded that while Jonathan’s return remains speculative, the zoning question and the balance of regional alliances will define the shape of the 2027 contest.
Speaking with New Daily Prime, Lanre Arogundade, a trade unionist, pro-democracy and human rights activist and media development specialist who serves as the Executive Director of the International Press Centre (IPC), described Nigerian politicians as masters of intrigue. He noted that aside from President Tinubu, he doubts if there is any other candidate whose emergence would not affect intra-party dynamics.
When our correspondent asked whether Jonathan’s candidacy would affect internal dynamics and zoning arrangements within his political party he chose to contest, Mr Arogundade responded with “I wonder if this question is answerable, given that Jonathan has not openly declared his interest in the presidency. I find it difficult to speculate. However, to one degree or the other, I think he should have votes across the regions.”
