By Fatimah Idera and Helen Okechukwu
Since the announcement of a coalition adopting the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as its platform to challenge President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections, Nigeria’s political landscape has continued to experience significant shifts, with several prominent politicians defecting to align with the party.
The wave of defections gained national attention in recent weeks, with the exit of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) earlier this week. Shortly after Atiku’s departure, another former presidential aspirant of the PDP, Dele Momodu, also left for the ADC.
Beyond these high-profile exits, several influential politicians at the state level, particularly from Ondo, Yobe, Gombe, and Adamawa—are reportedly on the verge of cross-carpeting to the new ADC coalition.
However, this realignment of political loyalties has not gone without scrutiny, raising concerns over its implications on and future of the existing parties.
In an interview with The New Daily Prime, political analysts expressed unease over the mass defections. They cautioned that if these movements are driven more by personal ambition than ideological conviction, they could undermine the integrity of the nation’s democratic system.
Dr Bayo Fasunwon, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Adekunle Ajasin University, further warned that the continued movement of political actors without a firm commitment to party principles risks eroding the very foundations of the country’s multi-party democracy.
He added that the democratic system is on the verge of collapsing if caution is not applied, predicting that the forthcoming general election might come with stark confusion, leaving the political system under pressure.
Dr Fasunwon issued a stark warning on Nigeria’s political future, describing the current state of the nation’s democracy as unstable and ideologically hollow—a dangerous trend he believes could derail the 2027 elections.
The professor says Nigeria’s democracy is collapsing into a “political quagmire” as parties lose identity, politicians chase power, and voters face growing confusion.
While giving a picture of what lies ahead, both political parties and the electorate, he accused the politicians of engaging in what he terms “political adultery”— a phenomenon where politicians hop from one party to another, not based on ideology, but on personal gain.
“They dump the party that brought them into prominence and join the ruling party for convenience and this shows clearly that these parties stand for nothing, no foundation, no ideology, no manifesto, no orientation.”
He attributes this behaviour to a lack of conviction and ideological alignment, arguing that true belief in a political cause would anchor politicians to specific parties.
Dr Fasunwon traced the origins of the PDP from the PDM era, commending its past strength but lamenting its present state. “PDP has been the last standing structure since 1999,” but it is now a house filled with people thirsty for power, not service,” he explained.
He also condemned high-profile defections within the PDP, particularly pointing out Atiku, describing him as the most inconsistent member of the party.
He added that; “Atiku goes in and out of parties like someone changing shoes. Likewise, El-Rufai has benefited from both PDP and APC and now wants a fresh political platform. Peter Obi, too, has become ambiguous in his loyalty.”
The analyst further warns that Nigeria is hurtling toward a de facto one-party system, as smaller parties and new coalitions are often personality-driven and ideologically hollow.
“These new parties may not survive the tide. Even if they win seats, their members will eventually decamp again. They don’t want structure; they want control,” he revealed
He believes that if PDP continues to weaken, and new parties fail to build lasting platforms, Nigeria risks losing any credible opposition, paving the way for unchecked dictatorship.
Forecasting ahead of the 2027 general elections, Dr Fasunwon paints a chaotic picture dominated by voter confusion, ideological collapse, and skyrocketing election costs.
“The biggest impact in 2027 will be confusion,” he said. “Voters won’t know whether to vote for parties or personalities.”
He noted that many of the emerging political personalities have tainted records from corruption allegations to authoritarian tendencies and voters will face difficult choices between known devourers and new but unstable coalitions.
He used the Labour Party (LP) as a case study: “The Labour Party was built on Peter Obi’s personality, but its structure is now shaky. Even Obi is talking from both sides of his mouth.”
The political analyst predicted internal conflicts in these new alliances over zoning, ticket allocations, and leadership roles, further destabilising the opposition and offering the ruling party a strategic advantage.
With new political parties entering the fray, Dr Fasunwon noted that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will face increased logistical and financial burdens.
“Adding more parties to the ballot will stretch the election budget. We’re going to spend more and for what? Confusion.”
He warned: “What we are witnessing is not democracy, it’s a distortion. Unless we arrest this political decay, Nigeria is heading into deeper chaos. We are promoting dictatorship and undermining the democratic experiment.”
He called for urgent political reorientation, ideological grounding, and institutional reforms, urging Nigerians to reflect deeply before the next electoral cycle.
Furthermore, Abdulateef Ahmed, another expert, said from a policy and political strategy standpoint, Atiku’s departure from the PDP signals a seismic shift within Nigeria’s opposition landscape.
“His exit hands over power to other key blocs most notably the faction led by Nyesom Wike following long-standing, irreconcilable differences that had plagued the PDP ahead of the 2023 presidential election.”
He noted that the internal divisions within the party go beyond ideological disagreements, highlighting deep-rooted issues related to trust, power-sharing, and regional representation.
“At the core of these issues is party funding. Who pays the piper dictates the tune. While Atiku’s departure is perceived as a major political victory for the Wike-led bloc, his rumoured entry into the African Democratic Congress (ADC) introduces a fresh dynamic. It could significantly alter the internal balance of the ADC and upset the strategic calculations of existing contenders within that party.
“Notably, reports suggest that the ADC has already absorbed significant grassroots structures of the PDP in several states, creating a scenario in which the PDP’s national influence is visibly diminishing. At this point, the PDP faces three major options ahead of the 2027 presidential election:
“If internal disintegration continues unchecked—with more defections and the erosion of state structures—the party risks becoming politically irrelevant. A merger or alliance with other political parties, including the ADC, could help consolidate the opposition and mount a credible challenge to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). However, this would require complex negotiations and power-sharing arrangements, which may prove difficult in light of recent betrayals and widespread mistrust.
“This would involve a complete overhaul of the party—presenting a fresh and credible presidential candidate, rebuilding national structures, and rallying disenchanted members. Such a reinvention would demand visionary leadership and renewed ideological clarity to present a convincing alternative to the APC.”
Meanwhile, he noted that the ADC has already absorbed substantial PDP grassroots networks in several key states, further weakening the PDP’s national standing and influence ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Ahmad noted that the ongoing political realignment reflects a significant shift in Nigeria’s political landscape—one in which traditional party loyalties are losing their hold.
He stressed that performance, credibility, and the ability to build strategic alliances will increasingly define those who influence the nation’s future.
