Reform UK leads in polls as the Tories face major local election losses. Talks of a “Unite the Right” strategy emerge, while Badenoch’s leadership is under threat
With the May 1, 2025, local and mayoral elections fast approaching, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has emerged as a dominant force in the polls, overtaking both Labour and the Conservatives. The rise of Reform UK signals a seismic shift in British politics, as the party positions itself as a serious contender in future elections.
Recent national polling indicates that Reform UK is poised to make significant electoral gains, potentially seizing seats traditionally held by both Labour and the Tories. The Conservatives, currently defending 1,450 seats won during Boris Johnson’s tenure in 2021, are widely expected to lose hundreds of seats, with many expected to fall into Reform UK’s hands.
A recent poll also suggests that Reform could take the Runcorn and Helsby seat from Labour in an upcoming by-election. This would mark a historic victory, demonstrating that Reform’s appeal extends beyond disillusioned Conservative voters and into Labour heartlands.
Mr. Farage has boldly declared that he envisions Reform UK leading the country, stating: “I do believe that we will win the next general election. I do believe I can become the next prime minister.” His confidence underscores the party’s rapid transformation from an emerging movement into a formidable electoral force.
As the Conservative Party braces for significant losses, reports have surfaced of a behind-the-scenes effort to consolidate right-wing support. Dubbed the ‘Unite the Right’ campaign, former Tory and Reform aides, backed by major donors, are strategizing on how to prevent the Conservative Party from falling apart completely.
The Sunday Times has reported that discussions remain open-ended on how the right-wing bloc might be structured, with one proposal mirroring Germany’s centre-right model, where the Tories focus on the south and Reform UK dominates the north. The move suggests a recognition that the Conservative Party, in its current form, may no longer be viable as a governing force.
However, Reform UK has vehemently denied any formal discussions about an alliance. A spokesperson for the party dismissed the claims, stating: “There is no deal. The only reason the Tories are talking about it is because their poll ratings are about to fall off a cliff.”
As part of their broader efforts to regroup, Conservative insiders are reportedly plotting to remove tore leader Kemi Badenoch, believing she lacks the leadership strength needed to prevent electoral collapse.
One anonymous party source allegedly stated: “More and more MPs realize she’s doomed. We’ll bury her in disaster from the local elections, keep the pressure on, then f— the Conservative Party conference.”
The aggressive rhetoric reflects the deepening fractures within the Conservative Party, as it struggles to define its future direction in the wake of declining public support.
Adding further intrigue, Mr. Farage has confirmed that he met with Dominic Cummings, the former chief strategist behind Brexit, for a private dinner to discuss the future of British politics. According to sources, their conversation ranged from the decline of the Conservative Party to Donald Trump’s presidency and Elon Musk’s vision for government efficiency.
While Farage has denied any plans for an alliance, his engagement with one of the most influential political strategists of the last decade suggests that discussions about Reform UK’s role in the political landscape are ongoing and strategic.
With just weeks remaining before the local elections, the political landscape is more unpredictable than ever. Reform UK’s rapid rise, Tory infighting, and the possibility of a realignment on the right are likely to define the outcome of the elections and shape Britain’s political future.
The Conservatives have already announced Sean Houlston as their candidate for the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury. Houlston previously ran in the 2024 general election but finished third, losing to both Labour and Reform UK. With polling indicating that Reform is now the frontrunner, the election will serve as a critical litmus test for Farage’s party.
As election day nears, all eyes remain on whether Reform UK can convert polling momentum into real electoral victories—and whether the Conservative Party can survive the fallout.
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