Vincent Clerc makes prediction as shipping group reports rise in operating profit to $6.5bn for 2024
Tariffs should not have a “massive impact” on trade this year as consumer sentiment remains strong, the chief executive of Danish container shipping giant AP Møller-Maersk has said.
Vincent Clerc told the Financial Times that he did not expect tariffs to affect volumes much this year as the world’s second-largest container shipping line — seen as a bellwether of globalisation — forecast demand growth of 4 per cent for 2025 compared with last year.
“The reason why we don’t expect a massive impact is what really matters is not tariffs but what the purchasing power of consumers looks like,” Clerc said.
US President Donald Trump shocked markets at the weekend by threatening tariffs on Canada and Mexico before suspending them for a month, as well as imposing them on China. He has warned that he is likely to place tariffs on the EU too.
But Clerc said that “as long as they are not implemented and we cannot assess the impact on customers’ wallets, it’s premature to see it as a major factor”.
He added: “Tariffs are just one factor in a pretty complex macroeconomic equation.” He cited interest rates, inflation, energy prices and more as having an impact on consumer sentiment as well.
Maersk is closely watched for its views on trade given that it carries about one-fifth of all seaborne freight.
Trump has also vaguely threatened Denmark with specific tariffs if it refuses to let the US take control of Greenland, an autonomous Arctic territory controlled by Copenhagen.
Analysts see Maersk as one of the most vulnerable Danish groups, but security expert Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at US think-tank the Atlantic Council, has suggested the container shipping line could stop sailing to American ports.
Clerc declined to comment on that. But on the prospect of specific tariffs on Denmark, he said: “How would tariffs be applied? How would they be responded to? How does all that affect consumer sentiment? We are following very closely. But it is too early today, without knowing what is going to happen, to really have a firm opinion.”
The Danish group had expected a difficult 2024 as container shipping groups ordered large numbers of new vessels. However, it ended up benefiting from soaring freight rates due to attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, causing Maersk and most other groups to take the longer and more expensive route round the bottom of South Africa.
Operating profit rose two-thirds to $6.5bn last year, but Maersk forecast a profit in a range of zero to $3bn in 2025. Revenues increased 9 per cent to $55bn.
Clerc underscored that the lower profit guidance was due to supply — more new vessels being introduced that should lead to lower prices — rather than any problem with demand, which he said still appeared strong. “What is underpinning this is a normalisation on prices not because demand side is weak but an adjustment on the supply side,” he added.
By Richard Milne, Nordic and Baltic Correspondent
