Trump’s Ukraine plan may cost the EU $3 trillion. His secret talks with Putin shock EU leaders, fueling NATO tensions and raising concerns over U.S. support.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion, continues to escalate as geopolitical tensions rise. Russia has long opposed NATO’s eastward expansion, perceiving it as a direct threat to its national security.
U.S. President Donald Trump is now pressuring European Union (EU) leaders to take the lead in ensuring peace in Ukraine. However, according to Bloomberg, his demands could stretch EU resources and financial capabilities to their limits.
Unnotified Talks with Putin Shock EU Allies
On Wednesday, Trump reportedly held telephone talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move that stunned European allies, who were not informed of the discussions.
According to two senior European officials, the call was unexpected and raised concerns over Trump’s intentions. Another European official labelled the call a “sell-out,” suggesting that the U.S. was conceding to Putin’s demands before formal negotiations even began.
A top EU defence official warned that Russia currently holds a significant manpower advantage over Europe and produces military equipment at a faster rate than the needs of the Ukrainian army on the front lines.
Another concern among EU leaders is that Trump’s team lacks experience in negotiating with Russia, while most of Putin’s inner circle consists of former intelligence officers with decades of experience dealing with U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
“For all of Trump’s confidence, the path to a deal remains highly uncertain,” Bloomberg notes. “Putin has shown no willingness to compromise on his longstanding demands, and his goal of controlling Ukraine appears unchanged.”
EU Defense Spending to Counter Russian Aggression
According to Bloomberg Economics, European leaders will likely try to persuade Trump to maintain U.S. support for Kyiv until the EU can strengthen its own defence capabilities.
However, if the U.S. refuses to back NATO efforts to counter a potential Russian attack, Putin would achieve his goal of dividing the U.S. and its European allies.
Trump has frequently accused European nations of not contributing enough to Ukraine’s defence, stating that America cannot continue financing Ukraine at Europe’s expense. He has also criticized NATO members, particularly Germany and France, for failing to meet their defence spending obligations.
Trump has long argued that the U.S. is disproportionately funding NATO, while several European nations fall short of the 2% GDP military spending requirement.
The Cost of Rebuilding Ukraine’s Military
Bloomberg analysts estimate that rebuilding Ukraine’s military could cost around $175 billion over 10 years, depending on the state of its armed forces and the territory it needs to defend.
Recent discussions at NATO headquarters in Brussels indicate that the majority of EU defence funding will go toward:
✔ Expanding military capabilities of EU members
✔ Increasing the total defence budget to 3.5% of GDP
✔ Strengthening artillery stockpiles, air defence systems, and missile infrastructure
✔ Enhancing EU military readiness for rapid deployment
✔ Growing Europe’s defence industry to boost domestic arms production
Bloomberg economists estimate that if European defence expansion is financed by debt, it would increase borrowing needs by $2.7 trillion for the five largest European NATO members over the next decade.
In total, Europe’s military buildup and continued support for Ukraine could cost EU nations an additional $3.1 trillion over the next 10 years.
Trump’s Position on Ukraine
Trump has expressed scepticism over Ukraine’s ability to regain the territories seized by Russia since 2014, stating that a return to pre-war borders is unlikely.
He also believes Ukraine’s NATO membership is impractical, though he has promised continued assistance—albeit under “safer” terms.
Instead, Trump hopes to negotiate a rapid settlement to the conflict and announced plans for a U.S.-Russia partnership agreement.
U.S. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth has reinforced that European allies should take primary responsibility for defending Ukraine.
“Protecting European security should be the primary duty of European NATO members,” Hegseth stated. “Future military and non-military assistance to Ukraine should come predominantly from Europe.”
Putin’s Peace Talks Proposal
On February 12, 2025, Trump and Putin spoke by phone, during which Putin suggested a long-term peace settlement for Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated: “President Putin highlighted the need to address the root causes of the conflict and agreed with Trump that a long-term solution could be found through peace talks.”
In addition, Putin invited Trump to visit Moscow, saying that Russia was “ready to welcome U.S. officials” for further negotiations.
Peskov added: “This invitation is also extended in the context of seeking a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict.”
Putin and Trump reportedly agreed to continue personal contact, including possible face-to-face meetings.
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