Nigeria has lost crude oil valued at an estimated N8.41 trillion to theft and metering deficiencies between 2021 and July 2025, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The regulator noted that daily crude losses have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 16 years, but experts warn that the cumulative economic impact remains severe and reflects systemic governance failures in the oil sector.
NUPRC data showed losses of 37.6 million barrels in 2021, 20.9 million barrels in 2022, 4.3 million barrels in 2023, 4.1 million barrels in 2024, and 2.04 million barrels in the first seven months of 2025. Based on average Brent crude prices for each year, the total loss equates to $5.61 billion (approximately N8.41tn at an exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar).
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To contextualise, this lost revenue could have funded the construction of over 56,000 primary health centres, 129,000 classroom blocks, or more than 10,000 kilometres of roads. In comparison, the federal government’s 2025 budget allocates N1 trillion for 468 road projects, less than one-eighth of the value of oil lost over the last four and a half years. The losses also exceed the entire 2025 health budget of N2.48tn and nearly triple the education budget of N3.52tn.
Energy consultant Chukwuma Atuanya acknowledged progress in reducing losses to 2.04 million barrels in the first seven months of 2025—averaging 9,600 barrels per day, down from a peak of 102,900 bpd in 2021. However, he noted that Nigeria still falls short of its 2 million barrels per day production target for December 2025, with losses of roughly 9,600 bpd continuing to impact revenues.
“At this scale, oil theft undermines foreign exchange earnings, weakens the naira, discourages investors, and fuels economic instability,” Atuanya said. He added that pipeline vandalism and illegal refining cause environmental damage, deepen poverty, and worsen insecurity in the Niger Delta.
Atuanya called for stricter penalties, prosecution of officials complicit in theft, and greater community involvement to reduce losses to tolerable levels.
However, Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, expressed scepticism about the accuracy of the NUPRC figures, citing weaknesses in metering and reporting systems. “It may well be 2.04 million barrels; it may be double that. We simply do not know,” he said.
Ayoade also criticised security agencies for failing to prosecute those behind theft and illegal refining, describing the situation as a sign of systemic complicity. “No one is in jail despite trillions lost,” he said. “Until offenders, including complicit officials, are jailed, this cycle will continue.”
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The NUPRC credited reforms under the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act, enhanced technology, stricter monitoring, and community engagement with recent improvements. In July 2025, daily losses fell to 9,600 barrels per day—the lowest since 2009.
Despite this progress, the ongoing debate highlights that oil theft remains a major challenge to Nigeria’s economic development. With crude oil accounting for over 90% of foreign exchange earnings, the continued losses undermine government budgets, investor confidence, and national security.
Experts agree that while complete eradication of theft is unlikely, it can be reduced through transparent systems, stronger enforcement, community partnerships, and political will.
The N8.41tn lost since 2021 serves as a stark reminder of what Nigeria forfeits to theft and inefficiency, threatening the nation’s prospects for growth and stability.
As Professor Ayoade put it, “How can trillions vanish and nobody be punished? Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s greatest self-inflicted wound.”
