The United States secretly developed a detailed plan to invade Canada in the early 20th century, a long-buried episode in North American history that is now attracting renewed attention amid growing concerns over Washington’s increasingly assertive foreign policy under former president Donald Trump.
The strategy, known as War Plan Red, was first drafted in 1927 and formally approved in 1930. It was designed for a hypothetical war between the United States and Great Britain, with Canada identified as a key battleground. American military planners believed that neutralising Canada quickly would prevent Britain from gaining any strategic foothold in North America.
According to historical records, the plan envisaged a swift and overwhelming assault on Canadian territory. US forces were expected to seize major port cities, cut undersea communication cables, and destroy bridges and rail lines to cripple infrastructure. Strategically important cities along lakes and rivers were to be captured early to weaken civilian resistance and disrupt supply routes.
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The plan also included the use of poison gas munitions, amphibious landings and large-scale ground operations. Military architects of War Plan Red anticipated that the invasion would be short-lived, with Canada falling within days of the first strikes. Mass internments were also considered as part of efforts to maintain control over occupied territory.
For decades, War Plan Red was dismissed by historians as a curious relic of interwar military thinking, never intended for real-world execution. However, analysts now say the plan has taken on fresh relevance as the United States adopts a more aggressive posture towards both rivals and allies.
Recent developments under Trump’s leadership have unsettled observers across the region. In early January, the United States ordered the capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, while Trump openly discussed taking control of the country’s oil resources — remarks that alarmed Latin American leaders and reignited debate over US interventionism.
Days later, Trump and senior officials suggested the possibility of invading and annexing Greenland, citing its strategic location and mineral wealth. Trump also shared a social media image depicting the US flag superimposed over Greenland and Canada, a move widely criticised by Canadian lawmakers and political commentators.
Trump further fuelled anxiety by questioning the legitimacy of the US–Canada border, describing it as an “artificially drawn line” that could be “redrawn with force and persuasion.” The comments caused unease in Ottawa and prompted renewed scrutiny of historical US strategic thinking.
Analysts argue that War Plan Red, though conceived in a vastly different era, highlights enduring assumptions about American dominance in North America. Thomas Homer-Dixon, a Canadian conflict researcher, says Canadians have traditionally relied on the goodwill and restraint of the United States — a trust he believes is now weakening.
“With Canada, we’ve been critically dependent on the friendship and benignness of the United States,” Homer-Dixon said. “All of a sudden, both those things have just disappeared, and only now are Canadians beginning to grasp what that means.”
In response, reports suggest Canada has begun modelling hypothetical defence strategies, including guerrilla-style resistance aimed at slowing any potential invasion. Lessons from conflicts such as Afghanistan have reportedly informed these scenarios.
Public concern has also begun to influence policy discussions. Polls indicate that a growing number of Canadians now view the possibility of a US military threat within the next few years as plausible. As a result, some analysts are calling for expanded civil defence planning, stronger reserve forces and deeper cooperation with European and other allies to reinforce deterrence, particularly in the Arctic.
Observers warn that while War Plan Red belongs to the past, the mindset that produced it may not. With shifting US foreign policy priorities, they argue that Canada must reassess its strategic assumptions and take steps to safeguard its sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.
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