A new poll has laid bare the huge gap between public perception and the reality of immigration in Britain. Two-thirds of voters (67 per cent) believe numbers coming to the UK have gone up over the past year – even though official figures show net migration has crashed to its lowest level in years.
The survey, carried out by More in Common and shared exclusively with The Guardian, found that only a small fraction of people realise the true picture. Net migration dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, down from a peak of 944,000 and the lowest since the pandemic. Yet 80 per cent of Reform UK voters and a clear majority across all parties think arrivals are still climbing.
The findings are a blow to Labour, which has made getting a grip on immigration a priority. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood recently announced sweeping asylum reforms: refugees could wait up to 20 years for citizenship, family reunions would be restricted, and officials would be able to seize assets from those claiming sanctuary. The aim is to deter people and rebuild trust, but the poll shows the message is not getting through yet.
Trust in the government’s handling of borders has fallen sharply. Three-quarters of voters now say they have little or no confidence – a rise from 70 per cent last spring. Even Labour’s own 2024 voters have lost faith, with confidence dropping 17 points.
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Luke Tryl, from More in Common, said the public simply do not believe the numbers until they see change in their daily lives. “People still see stories about small boats and think the system is out of control,” he explained. Small-boat crossings – though only a small part of overall migration – dominate headlines. More than 41,000 people arrived that way in 2025, the second-highest annual total.
When poll respondents were told the real figures, fewer than one in five gave the government credit for the fall. Many wrongly thought the previous Conservative administration deserved the praise.
Campaigners on the left worry Labour is copying Reform UK’s tough talk too closely. Liverpool MP Kim Johnson called some proposals “shameful”, warning they risk harming vulnerable people and key sectors like the NHS that rely on overseas staff.
Ministers insist the reforms are working. Skilled-worker visa applications fell 36 per cent last year, and health-and-care visas halved. Migration Minister Mike Tapp said: “We inherited a broken system. Net migration is down by more than two-thirds on our watch.”
As new English-language rules and electronic travel authorisations kick in this month, the government hopes the tide of public opinion will finally turn. But until everyday voters feel the difference – on housing, public services, or community cohesion – scepticism will remain high. Bridging this perception gap is now one of Labour’s biggest tests.
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