Guinea goes to the polls on Sunday for its first presidential election since the 2021 military coup that brought Colonel Mamady Doumbouya to power.
In September 2021, Doumbouya, then a little-known army colonel, appeared on national television to announce that soldiers had overthrown President Alpha Condé, ending more than a decade of civilian rule.
“The will of the strongest has always supplanted the law,” he said at the time, claiming the coup was necessary to restore the will of the people.
Soon after seizing power, Doumbouya promised a 36-month transition to civilian rule. He rejected pressure from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to organise a quicker return to democracy, prompting protests and sharp criticism from opposition parties and civil society groups.
Many doubted his pledge not to stand for office.
On Sunday, about 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast their ballots. Nine candidates are contesting the presidency, including former minister Abdoulaye Yéro Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea and Faya Millimono, a former junta supporter who now leads the Liberal Bloc party.
However, Doumbouya is widely seen as the frontrunner.
That is largely due to a controversial constitutional referendum held in September, which introduced a new constitution allowing him to run and extended presidential terms from five to seven years.
Opposition groups have condemned the move. The coalition Forces vives de Guinée described Doumbouya’s candidacy as a betrayal. “The man who presented himself as the restorer of democracy chose to become its gravedigger,” it said after he formally submitted his candidacy to the supreme court.
Guinea’s vote comes amid a wave of political instability across west Africa, often described as a “coup belt”. Since 2020, the region has experienced seven successful coups and several failed attempts.
While Guinea has remained within Ecowas, military-led governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have withdrawn from the bloc and formed the Alliance of Sahel States, aligning themselves more closely with Russia.
If it proceeds as planned, Guinea’s election will be the first held in a junta-led country in the region since the recent spate of coups.
Inside Guinea, many believe the outcome is already decided. Since taking power, Doumbouya has consolidated his control, promoted himself to general and tightened his grip on state institutions.
The election is notable as much for who is absent as for who is competing.
Several major opposition parties remain suspended, and prominent political figures have been detained, barred from running or forced into exile. Among them is former prime minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, leader of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea.
Human rights groups say a climate of fear has taken hold, with critics of the junta imprisoned or silenced.
At the same time, Doumbouya has drawn criticism for pardoning Moussa Dadis Camara, the former military ruler sentenced to 20 years in prison for his role in the 2009 stadium massacre in Conakry, where protesters were killed and women raped.
The pardon was issued before the conclusion of legal proceedings and prompted outrage from victims’ families and human rights organisations, who urged the junta leader to reverse the decision. The case now remains unresolved.
In recent weeks, Doumbouya has sought to bolster his standing by highlighting economic projects. This month, Guinea officially launched the Simandou iron ore mine, home to the world’s largest untapped iron ore reserves.
The project, delayed for decades by political instability and corruption, includes plans for new railways and ports. The government has presented it as a turning point for the economy, though critics point to job losses and environmental damage.
With around half of Guinea’s population living on less than $2 a day, the stakes are high. The future management of Simandou is seen as a test of transparency and governance for whoever wins the election.
“Our salvation lies in a return to the proper constitutional order,” said Abdoulaye Koroma, a presidential candidate from the Rally for Renaissance and Development party.
