Following the recent defection of Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, on Tuesday from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), alongside his core supporters, reports indicate that the decision emerged from a closed-door meeting with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the State House in Abuja on Monday.
The governor made the announcement during a stakeholders’ meeting at the Government House in Port Harcourt, claiming he defected in search of protection and to avoid “another mistake or step on landline laid.”
Similarly, Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, on Tuesday unveiled the Accord Party as his platform to contest the 2026 re-election, maintaining that his decision was driven by the party’s mission of welfarism, which aligns with his focus on citizens’ and workers’ welfare.
On the contrary, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), in a statement signed by the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Comrade Iniememobong, reiterated to Nigerians and the global community that the ruling party’s increasing “unrelenting disposition… towards the attainment of a one-party state, and the constriction of the political space,” indicates that “democracy is under severe attack in Nigeria.”
He added that the PDP will take legal steps to activate the provision of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (1999, as amended) to recover the mandate gained under the banner of the party, which they have now “ignobly and surreptitiously” switched to another platform.
States and Governors That Have Defected So Far:
States governors have defected include Enugu, Delta, Bayelsa, Osun, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom.
On Tuesday, 14 October, Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah announced his defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Also, Bayelsa State Governor, Senator Douye Diri, put to rest speculations around his rumoured defection from the PDP as he officially announced his resignation from the party on Wednesday, 15 October, for what he described as “obvious reasons.”
The Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, on 23 April also defected from the PDP to the APC
Meanwhile, Akwa Ibom Governor, Umo Eno, announced his own defection from PDP to APC on 6 June 2025.
Expert weighs in
Speaking to The New Daily Prime about party defections and their broader implications, Research Lead at News Central TV, Abdulateef Ahmed, who is also a political analyst, described the ongoing wave of defections as one of the most consequential developments so far.
Using Adeleke as a case study, he explained that the Osun governor’s move carries significance for two major reasons.
First is the governor’s personal vote bank. Adeleke “remains relatively popular across the state, particularly in his Ẹdẹ Federal Constituency, where he commands a solid and loyal bloc vote.”
Ahmed noted that this bloc typically votes with the Adeleke political family rather than for the party on the ballot.
“If he defects, most likely to the Accord Party, his personal supporters may migrate with him. This alters calculations for all parties because it denies the PDP the advantage of incumbency, it forces the APC into a three-way race in which the governor becomes a competitive force again, and it creates a spoiler dynamic that immediately boosts whichever platform he joins.”
The second factor is his absence and the optics of defection. Adeleke’s prolonged stay in the United States has created the perception that “he is politically unmoored and floating. A governor without a firm party identity generates voter uncertainty.”
Some supporters may sympathise with him if they perceive his move as a survival tactic. Others especially swing voters may see the prolonged absence as instability.
Nevertheless, Osun voters often prioritise personalities over parties. A governor with a strong political clan, name recognition, and emotional grassroots appeal “can transfer votes across party lines with ease.”
Ahmad revealed that Nigeria has a long tradition of last-minute defections linked to negotiations for protection from federal influence, access to campaign war chest, aligning with perceived winning coalitions, seeking leverage in court or party matters, bargaining for political survival after office.
However, Osun’s situation adds layers of complexity that make this defection heavily influenced by internal dynamics like the PDP in Osun is weakened, and the governor has been detached from the party structure for weeks.
The APC is locked in a fierce internal struggle. Ajibola Basiru has withdrawn. Aregbesola’s ADC has picked Najeem Salaam over Moshood Adeoti. Omisore has been running a strong pre-primary outreach.
Also, Osogbo remains the decisive bloc, and the APC must decide whether to take the conservative route or adopt realpolitik by backing Kunle Adegoke (K RAD) who can deliver the capital city’s massive vote. Adeleke’s personal style of staying above internal party battles and relying heavily on his family’s emotional vote base is also unique to Osun.While the move echoes a national pattern, the tension, factionalism, and electoral mathematics inside Osun make this defection particularly state-driven.
Although, there is growing belief that Kunle Adegoke, who can secure the critical Osogbo vote, may be the most strategic option. However, choosing him requires the party elders to break from long-standing conservative calculations.
The analyst further explained that Rebellions may erupt in two key areas like Ile Ife, which is Omisore’s base, and the Osogbo Olorunda axis which usually determines the outcome of Osun governorship elections because of its massive voting strength.
He concluded that Adeleke’s likely defection is a redistribution of political power in Osun. It weakens the PDP, complicates the APC’s internal battles, strengthens Accord, and introduces new volatility in voter behaviour. It reflects a blend of national realignment patterns and Osun-specific tensions.
