Jakarta has overtaken Tokyo to become the world’s most populous city, according to a new United Nations study that applies revised criteria to measure urban growth more consistently across the globe.
The Indonesian capital now has an estimated population of 42 million, placing it ahead of Dhaka, which is home to 37 million people. Tokyo, long regarded as the largest urban centre, has slipped to third place with 33 million inhabitants. The findings are contained in the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ World Urbanisation Prospects 2025 report, published this month.
The change in rankings reflects a methodological shift. Previous assessments relied on national data that often varied in definition, leading to discrepancies in how cities were categorised.
Patrick Gerland, head of the UN’s population estimates and projection section, explained that the new approach provides “a more internationally comparable delimitation of the urban extent based on similar population and geospatial criteria.”
Urbanisation has accelerated dramatically over the past seven decades. In 1950, only 20 per cent of the world’s 2.5 billion people lived in cities. Today, nearly half of the global population of 8.2 billion are urban dwellers. The report projects that by 2050, two-thirds of population growth will occur in cities, with most of the remainder in towns.
The number of megacities, defined as those with at least 10 million residents, has risen sharply. In 1975, there were eight such cities; by 2025, that figure will have quadrupled to 33. Nine of the ten most populous cities are located in Asia, including Jakarta, Dhaka, Tokyo, New Delhi, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Cairo, Manila, Kolkata and Seoul.
Li Junhia, UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs, described urbanisation as “a defining force of our time.” He added that when managed inclusively and strategically, it can “unlock transformative pathways for climate action, economic growth, and social equity.”
Tokyo’s metropolitan area, with its 33 million residents, encompasses the neighbouring prefectures of Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa. Kanagawa includes Yokohama, itself a city of 3.7 million people. According to the new criteria, Tokyo remained the world’s largest city until around 2010, when Jakarta surpassed it.
While the wider Tokyo region has experienced population decline in line with national trends, the city itself has continued to grow. Figures from the Tokyo metropolitan government show that the population of the 23 special wards and 26 smaller cities, often referred to as “Tokyo proper” now stands at just over 14 million, compared with 13.2 million a decade ago.
Migration to Tokyo slowed during the Covid-19 pandemic but has since recovered, driven largely by young people seeking employment and educational opportunities. Japan’s internal affairs ministry reports that this influx has helped sustain growth in the capital even as the country faces broader demographic challenges.
