Falling birthrates across UK in England could leave the equivalent of 800 primary schools empty or closed by the end of the decade, according to new research by the Education Policy Institute (EPI).
The thinktank found that the decline in pupil numbers at state primary schools is primarily driven by lower birthrates but is particularly severe in London, where more families are leaving the city, moving abroad, or switching to private schools.
With school funding tied to pupil numbers, councils are struggling to keep schools viable, leading to mergers and closures in some areas.
Jon Andrews, head of analysis at EPI, warned that declining enrolment places schools under increasing financial pressures, threatening their long-term survival. The trend first emerged in London but is now spreading nationwide.
Birthrates peaked in 2010, leading to a surge in primary enrolments between 2014 and 2018, forcing councils to expand provision.
However, the number of children starting school has fallen sharply.
Nationally, pupil numbers peaked in 2018–19 at 4.5 million but have since fallen nearly 2%. Over the next five years, they are forecast to drop by another 4%, leaving just 4.24 million pupils by 2029 a reduction of 162,000.
The EPI’s report highlights London as the hardest-hit region, with nine of the 10 councils facing the steepest declines based in the capital. In boroughs such as Islington, Lambeth and Southwark, enrolment is expected to fall significantly in the coming years.
Beyond birthrates, the EPI points to other factors including high housing costs, the cost of living crisis, and migration patterns since Brexit and the pandemic.
Around 20% of pupils who began reception in London in 2017–18 had left the state sector by year six.
Education leaders have urged the government to support councils, warning that without intervention schools will continue to close.
