Labour risks a near-wipeout in next year’s Welsh elections, with a new poll suggesting the party could lose two-thirds of its seats as Reform UK and Plaid Cymru gain ground.
Labour currently holds 29 of 60 Senedd seats but is projected to slump to just 11 when the parliament expands to 96 members under a new proportional system in May.
A YouGov/ITV Wales poll places Plaid on 30%, Reform on 29%, Labour on 14% and the Conservatives on 11%, highlighting dramatic shifts since Labour’s 40% vote share in 2021.
Seat projections show Plaid on course for 38 seats, Reform 37, Labour 11 and the Conservatives just six. The result would mark an end to Labour’s long dominance in Welsh politics, where it has governed since devolution in 1999.
The decline follows the leadership turmoil of Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething, and growing disaffection among traditional Labour voters.
Experts say Labour is losing support to Plaid and the Greens, while Reform’s rise is fuelled mainly by former Conservative voters and some Labour defectors.
With Scottish and local elections also due in May, the results are seen as a crucial test of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Left-wing MPs including Richard Burgon and Diane Abbott warn a poor showing could end his leadership.
Meanwhile, Reform welcomed another defection on Wednesday as Mason Humberstone, a Labour councillor in Stevenage, quit the party, calling it “lost, without vision, and mired in scandal.”
Reform leader Nigel Farage hailed the move as proof his party is building momentum beyond Wales.
Labour MP Kevin Bonavia said he was deeply disappointed, accusing Reform of “thriving on fear and division” and urging Humberstone to resign his seat if he intends to represent another party.
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