By Ismaeel Aleem
Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, reignited political debate with bold predictions about the 2027 presidential election, claiming President Bola Tinubu would fail to secure a place among the top two contenders.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, El-Rufai suggested the election could go into a run-off, as no candidate was likely to secure the required majority in the first round.
He attributed this to widespread dissatisfaction with the current administration.
READ ALSO: Tinubu assures Colombia of swift action on bilateral agreements
El-Rufai, who has remained a vocal critic of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) since his exit from the party, warned that Nigeria risked further decline if the APC retained power in 2027.
He argued that voter choices would be determined by Tinubu’s performance in office and the records of state governors, rather than party loyalty or political maneuvering.
“I was governor of Kaduna State; I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver the state to him,” he said, stressing the limits of political influence.
El-Rufai further noted that Tinubu himself had struggled in his home state during previous elections, despite having the backing of a sitting governor.
“Bola Tinubu himself couldn’t win his state with his own governor in place. So, these things are not as theoretical as people want them to be,” he added, dismissing assumptions of political invincibility.
The former governor dismissed any prospect of Tinubu’s victory, insisting his conclusion came from “thorough mathematical and analytical assessments.”
“If you want to engage in self-delusion, you are free to do so. I will not tell you how we are going to win, but I will tell you very clearly — the worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round,” he said, predicting a run-off where Tinubu would, at best, finish third.
Drawing a parallel with the 2015 polls, El-Rufai recalled former President Goodluck Jonathan’s defeat despite commanding state institutions such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), police, and the military.
“You know what, President Tinubu invited ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat, and asked him if he didn’t have all this in 2015, and we got him out. Is the case still the same? Similar to 2015? It’s worse,” El-Rufai remarked, suggesting conditions were now even less favourable for the incumbent.
He accused the current administration of cornering national resources for possible electoral advantage. “He may think, oh, you know, I have money, because they have taken all the money in the country, I have INEC, I have the police, I have the army,” El-Rufai alleged.
However, he advised Tinubu to reflect on Jonathan’s downfall, recommending a frank conversation over coffee about the dynamics that led to the 2015 upset.
Reflecting on his own political trajectory, El-Rufai disclosed that he would have resigned immediately if appointed minister in Tinubu’s cabinet. His nomination had been blocked by the National Assembly over alleged security concerns, a development that prompted his departure from the APC.
The fallout has since positioned him as a prominent opposition voice, frequently criticising the government’s handling of governance, the economy, and security.
El-Rufai’s comments came amid growing speculation over the 2027 contest, with opposition parties such as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and potential independent candidates preparing for the race.
READ ALSO: Wike knocks El-Rufai’s 2027 maths, warns PDP convention at risk
While critics dismissed his remarks as partisan bitterness, others viewed them as a realistic assessment of Nigeria’s shifting political loyalties.
As the country edges closer to 2027, El-Rufai’s intervention highlighted the fragility of incumbency and the weight of performance in shaping electoral outcomes. With more than a year to the polls, the APC faces mounting pressure to address public discontent and rebuild trust.
