US President Donald Trump’s dramatic intervention in Brazil’s domestic affairs appears to be backfiring, triggering widespread outrage across the South American nation and unintentionally giving a political boost to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
On 9 July, Trump penned a letter to Lula demanding that criminal charges against Brazil’s far-right former leader, Jair Bolsonaro, be dropped. In an extraordinary move, Trump also declared a punitive 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports into the United States unless his demand was met. Calling the legal proceedings against Bolsonaro a “Witch Hunt,” Trump thundered that the investigation “should end IMMEDIATELY!”
The intervention was seen as a desperate attempt to shield Bolsonaro, 70, who is already barred from standing in next year’s presidential election. It also reignited tensions between Brazil’s political factions, especially as Bolsonaro’s son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, urged Lula’s government to “surrender” to Trump’s ultimatum and offer his father an amnesty.
Flávio went as far as comparing Brazil’s predicament to Japan’s at the close of the Second World War. “It’s up to us to show the responsibility to avoid two atomic bombs landing on Brazil,” he said.
The opposite effect of Bolsonaro’s likely intended
However, the move has had the opposite effect of what Trump and the Bolsonaros likely intended. Instead of aiding Bolsonaro, the tariff threat has stirred national outrage, rallied leftwing forces, and handed Lula an unexpected surge in public approval.
The conservative Estado de São Paulo newspaper blasted the Bolsonaros for hypocrisy and cowardice, accusing the family of betraying Brazil for personal gain. “Jair Bolsonaro couldn’t care less about Brazil. He’s a phoney patriot,” the paper wrote in a scathing editorial.
“Brazil’s or Bolsonaro’s. The two paths are opposed,” the editorial board added, calling on conservatives to abandon the former president.
Columnist Eliane Cantanhêde, also writing for Estado, identified three likely motivations behind Trump’s “indecent proposal”: a bid to bolster far-right allies in Latin America, a strike against growing Chinese influence following the recent BRICS summit in Rio, and a personal favour to Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, who has been lobbying in Washington while in self-imposed exile in the US.
Cantanhêde argued that the strategy has spectacularly misfired. Trump’s “megalomaniac” play has allowed Lula to reframe himself as a nationalist defender of Brazil’s farmers, industrial workers, and exporters. The leftist president, once on the back foot due to falling approval ratings, now appears revitalised.
“Lula was on the ropes,” Cantanhêde noted. “Now he’s all smiles.”
The slogan “Brazil belongs to the Brazilians” has quickly become a rallying cry, with Lula even donning a blue cap bearing the phrase, a direct rebuke to what many perceive as Bolsonaro’s willingness to sacrifice national interests for his survival.
Nicolás Saldías, a Latin America analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, concurred, saying Trump’s gambit had effectively handed Lula a political gift. “Trump is pushing the whole world into China’s lap,” he added, noting that Beijing, Brazil’s largest trading partner, is likely delighted by the diplomatic rift between Washington and Brasília.
Even the Bolsonaros now appear to grasp the miscalculation. One source close to the family told Reuters: “The thrill of catching Trump’s attention soon curdled as the Bolsonaros realised the crushing weight of the tariffs tied to their cause.”
Under pressure, Bolsonaro distanced himself from the fallout on Tuesday, claiming he opposed the tariffs and blaming Lula’s “provocation” of the United States. He also suggested he could resolve the issue if granted “the freedom to talk to Trump.”
But the damage may already be done. Across Brazil, many are furious that Bolsonaro’s inner circle seems willing to jeopardise the country’s economy in a bid to escape legal accountability.
“We cannot allow this to happen,” said Silvana Marques, a teacher protesting in São Paulo. Recalling the unpunished crimes of Brazil’s 1964–1985 military dictatorship, she insisted: “There must be justice.”
Marques did not mince words when it came to the former president and his family. “They’re a family of traitors,” she said. “And the Americans must be thinking: are we going to have to pay 50% more for the things we import from Brazil just to defend this worn-out old horse?”
With public anger boiling over and Lula’s poll numbers rising, Trump’s intervention, intended as a lifeline, may have become Bolsonaro’s political anchor.
