Emmanuel Macron is expected to urge Sir Keir Starmer to formally recognise Palestine as an independent state during his state visit to the UK next week.
The French President will embark on a three-day trip featuring high-level talks, policy announcements, and royal pageantry, including an address to both Houses of Parliament and a summit with the Prime Minister.
A key focus of the visit will be a proposed one-in, one-out migrant returns agreement designed to curb the surge in illegal channel crossings. The deal would see the UK send back migrants who arrive from France in small boats while accepting an equivalent number of asylum seekers directly from France.
However, behind the scenes, diplomatic attention is expected to centre on a more contentious issue: the recognition of Palestinian statehood. While both London and Paris officially support a two-state solution and say recognition should come at a time that best supports the peace process, the two capitals are divided over how soon and under what conditions that recognition should happen.
Macron spearheads efforts to revive international momentum for recognising Palestine
Macron has taken a more assertive stance in recent months, spearheading efforts to revive international momentum for recognising Palestine. Last month, he co-sponsored a now-cancelled UN conference on the issue with Saudi Arabia. The meeting in New York was scrapped following Israeli airstrikes on Iran, but France is pushing to reconvene it during the UN General Assembly in September.
Paris believes that recognising Palestine could act as a lever for reviving peace negotiations and encouraging a two-state solution. London, however, remains cautious. UK officials are reportedly concerned that such a move could be largely symbolic unless accompanied by strict conditions on Hamas, including disarmament and a commitment not to lead Palestine during any future reconstruction phase.
One Whitehall source said: “The French are trying to get us back on board with recognition. We’re reticent. You do it when you think you can achieve something from it, not just to say you’ve done it.”
The UK Foreign Office reiterated its long-standing position, stating: “We support a two-state solution that guarantees security and stability for both the Israeli and Palestinian people. We will recognise a Palestinian state at a time that is most conducive to the peace process.”
Israel has strongly opposed unilateral recognition, warning it would reward Hamas following its October 7, 2023 attacks, which sparked the war in Gaza.
Domestic politics may further complicate Starmer’s calculus. Talks of a new pro-Palestinian political party involving former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn could pressure the Prime Minister to shift his stance, especially among parts of the Labour grassroots.
The Macron-Starmer summit, scheduled for Thursday, is expected to showcase joint policy efforts on migration and civil nuclear cooperation. Discussions on Gaza and Palestinian statehood are likely to occur behind closed doors, although it is unclear whether any agreement will be reached.
On Friday, in a new approach to the Channel migrant crisis, French police punctured dinghies at sea for the first time, a move backed by Home Secretary Yvette Cooper. Officers entered shallow waters near Boulogne-sur-Mer to deflate boats, forcing migrants to return to shore without risking lives in deeper waters.
Beyond politics, the French President and his wife Brigitte Macron will be treated to full royal honours during their stay. King Charles, Queen Camilla, and the Prince and Princess of Wales will welcome them with a ceremonial carriage procession through Windsor on Tuesday, as Britain rolls out the red carpet for its closest continental ally.
