By Alade Adisa
The sudden resignation of the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, came as a surprise to many people. What could have happened? Some were quick to ask on Friday when the news hit the airwaves.
Checks by New Daily Prime show that it all has to do with calculations for the 2027 presidential elections.
Kano, Rivers, Lagos factor
A scrutiny of previous elections in the country shows that Kano, Rivers and Lagos states are the leading swing states in Nigeria. The trend has been that the winner of the presidential election wins at least two of the three states.
The states usually give the winner millions of votes. It was only in 2023 that President Bola Tinubu, who emerged the winner, won only one state- Rivers. That is why Tinubu is treating Nyesom Wike as a god.
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Before that, in 2015 and 2019, Muhammadu Buhari won in Kano and Lagos. In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan won the three and the trend continues.
Kwankwaso factor in Kano
Rabiu Kwakwanso is reportedly negotiating to come over to the APC from the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP. However, his coming to the APC is predicated on some conditions, one of which is to take control of the APC in Kano State.
Because of the alleged diminishing influence of Ganduje in Kano, where he served as a governor, Tinubu is considering embracing Kwakwanso and jettisoning Ganduje.
The current emirship tussle in Kano is also traceable to the political battle between Ganduje and Kwakwanso. The federal and state governments are locked in a battle too, courtesy of Ganduje using his federal influence in the state, which may be whittled down now, as the pendulum may shift in favour of Kwakwanso and his choice, Emir Sanusi.
Northwest and Northeast
Tinubu has seen the handwriting that the Northwest is strongly opposed to him for some reasons, and that poses a major obstacle to his reelection.
The Northwest is dominated by the APC except for Kano and Zamfara, which are led by the NNPP and the PDP. The zone is also a major vote basket. All the states can deliver over one million votes each. There are seven states there.
In the Northeast, the PDP controls three states, Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba, while the APC is in charge in Borno, Yobe and Gombe states. Tinubu cannot rely on the zone for his voting strength.
Shettima in limbo?
From the look of things, current Vice President Kasim Shetimma may be a sacrificial lamb to appease the Northwest, the major zone opposed to Tinubu.
The recent comment by the Deputy Senate President, Senator Barau Jubrin, that he is ready to serve Tinubu in any capacity is a sign of the overtures being made to him to run with Tinubu in 2027. He was contacted after Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, expressed satisfaction with his current position.
Who will now become the APC chairman?
Investigation reveals that the former Governor of Nasarawa State, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura may be the final choice. Adamu Abdullahi, whom Ganduje took over from, is also a former governor of that state. Being from the North Central, Al-Makura stands a chance to balance the political equation in the APC.
Leaders of the party from the zone had earlier agitated that it was somebody among them who should succeed Abdullahi and not Ganduje. In fact, former Kogi Governor, Yahaya Bello felt that position would land on his lap before he ran into trouble with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC.
