President Donald Trump has officially placed Ireland on the White House’s trade ‘blacklist’, as transatlantic tensions mount ahead of a critical tariff deadline. Ireland now joins Switzerland and other long-standing US targets such as China, Japan, Germany, Vietnam, and South Korea on the US Treasury’s Monitoring List of major trading partners with large trade surpluses.
The designation increases the risk that Ireland, whose economy is dominated by pharmaceutical and technology exports, could face new US tariffs and sanctions. President Trump has previously accused Ireland of harming the US economy through its trade practices, telling Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin in March: “We do have a massive deficit with Ireland, because Ireland was very smart. They took our pharmaceutical companies away.”
At one point, Trump even considered imposing a 200% tariff on US pharmaceutical imports from Ireland, though later softened his stance: “We don’t want to do anything to hurt Ireland. We do want fairness.”
The latest US Treasury report advises Ireland to boost domestic economic activity and reduce its dependence on export-led multinationals. The advice follows a 49% surge in Irish goods exports to the US in the first quarter of 2025, as companies rushed to ship products ahead of any potential new tariffs — helping to fuel a 9.7% rise in Ireland’s GDP.
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But the risks are growing. Irish exporters now face Trump’s threatened 50% tariff on EU goods, which could be imposed as soon as early July unless EU-US negotiations yield an agreement.
Europe’s economic outlook is worsening. On Friday, the German central bank warned that failure to resolve the dispute could push Germany — the EU’s largest economy — into recession until 2027. Latest German data shows factory output fell 1.4% in April, with exports to the US plunging 10.3% month on month as early shipment activity tapers off.
EU and US negotiators met in Paris this week to seek a breakthrough. EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic reported that talks were “advancing in the right direction at pace,” while US trade representative Jamieson Greer said he was “pleased that negotiations are advancing quickly.”
But with just over four weeks remaining before Trump’s 90-day pause on new tariffs expires on July 9, the clock is ticking. While Trump has frequently railed against EU trade policies, he struck a more measured tone after meeting German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office on Thursday.
“We’ll end up hopefully with a trade deal,” Trump told reporters. “I’m OK with the tariffs, or we make a deal with the trade.”
For now, Ireland — and much of Europe — remains firmly in the US trade crosshairs.
