As questions grow over whether continued U.S. support for Ukraine will survive a potential Donald Trump presidency, Kyiv is laying the groundwork for strategic independence. While American aid remains vital, Ukraine’s leadership is betting on self-reliance—transforming the country into what some officials now call the “arsenal of the free world.”
With the last U.S. aid package approved under President Joe Biden expected to expire by summer, Ukraine has ramped up local production of ammunition and military systems. Ukrainian forces, once heavily dependent on Western weapons, are now deploying locally manufactured 152mm shells for Soviet-calibre D-30 howitzers—evidence that the country is preparing for a future with less foreign support.
“In all plausible scenarios, assistance will eventually end—even if Ukraine accepts the U.S. peace framework,” said Mykola Bielieskov, senior analyst at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies.
The long-anticipated minerals agreement signed between Kyiv and Washington this week may unlock new routes for collaboration. Still, uncertainty lingers as the Trump camp signals a less interventionist stance. Though Trump’s administration has just greenlit $50 million in arms exports to Ukraine, European leaders and Ukrainian officials are under no illusion: American support is not guaranteed.
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Strategic Autonomy: A Three-Pillar Plan
Since the failed counteroffensive of 2023 and Russia’s gains in Avdiivka, Ukraine has quietly reshaped its war strategy. According to government insiders, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team shifted focus from short-term aid to long-term survival, emphasizing three key areas: domestic arms production, foreign defense investments, and battlefield innovation.
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The Rise of Ukraine’s Drone Army
“The battlefield evolves every six months,” said Sgt. Oleksandr Yarmak of Ukraine’s unmanned systems unit. “That speed of innovation gives us the edge.”
Last year alone, Ukraine produced more than two million FPV drones and several thousand long-range UAVs capable of striking targets as far as 1,700km—roughly the distance from London to Warsaw. This technological leap has enabled Ukraine to carve out a nine-mile-wide kill zone along the eastern front, slowing Russia’s advance and disrupting supply chains.
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Funding the War: From Donor Reliance to Homegrown Solutions
In 2024, 30% of Ukraine’s defense budget came from the U.S., another 30% from the EU, and the rest was funded domestically. With American contributions in doubt, Ukraine and its partners are shifting toward what’s known as the “Danish model”—direct funding of local military production.
One example: £850 million sourced from frozen Russian assets was allocated this April to support Ukraine’s defense sector. This model bypasses delays and intermediaries, enabling Kyiv to triple production of key artillery systems like the Bohdana howitzer—85% of whose parts are now Ukrainian-made.
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Ukraine as a Defense Hub
Ukraine’s third strategic pillar is attracting global arms manufacturers. UK-based BAE Systems is already repairing vehicles on the front lines. German arms giant Rheinmetall—which outpaces the entire U.S. in 155mm shell production—plans to open local maintenance centers for Leopard tanks and German artillery.
“If you’re not in Ukraine, you don’t exist,” said Andrii Koropatva, CEO of Ancestor, a drone software startup. Ukraine is not just defending its territory; it’s creating a model of wartime industrial transformation.
Risks and Gaps: Air Defenses and Intelligence
Despite progress, Ukraine remains vulnerable. The most critical shortfalls without U.S. support would be in air defense and real-time intelligence—capabilities that neither Ukraine nor the EU can fully replicate.
“There’s no Ukrainian substitute for either,” said Bielieskov. “Europe could help—but only by risking more of its own military stockpiles.”
Ukraine’s long game is bold: to outlast Russian aggression by building a self-sufficient defense economy. While the world watches Trump’s next moves, Kyiv is acting—expanding factories, forging alliances, and innovating on the battlefield.
But time, resources, and Western willpower remain unpredictable variables. As Zelensky and his government double down on independence, the question lingers: Can Ukraine win a long war if America steps back?
