Why is Chelsea’s season falling apart?!
The Blues are in the midst of a five-game winless run in the Premier League, and now face a fight to secure a top-four finish once again One month ago, Chelsea were but a couple of points adrift of Premier League leaders Liverpool. There was talk of the Blues making a surprise run for the title, a far cry from pre-season predictions suggesting they would be fortunate to even qualify for Europe again. The noises out of Stamford Bridge were defiant. Head coach Enzo Maresca and many, many members of his first-team squad made sure to let the world know Chelsea definitely were not in a title race. Actions speak louder than words though, and following a run of five league games without a win – draws with Everton, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth to go with losses to Fulham and Ipswich – they have been proven correct. This won’t be their year after all. When Chelsea had ascended to second in the standings, it didn’t feel flukey. They were there on merit following some impressive performances through the autumn, and though they didn’t beat either of the experienced and genuine title contenders in Liverpool and Arsenal, they still went toe-to-toe with the pair of them. With Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham floundering, Chelsea looked near-certainties to reach the Champions League, but now face a battle to finish in the top four. Their season is unravelling as quickly as it showed promise. Warning signs from the start Chelsea knew what they were getting into when they hired a relative rookie head coach in Maresca – a fabulous tactical mind nurtured by Pep Guardiola with strong potential as a top-level manager, but someone who would need time to iron out his own kinks, let alone those of his young squad. The decision to hand him a five-year contract – with the option for a further 12 months, because why the hell not at this point – was recognition this was a long-term commitment after Mauricio Pochettino’s sole season of building foundations and trimming an infamously bloated squad. Maresca had managed just one complete season at senior level prior to his move to west London, guiding title-favourites Leicester to first place in the 2023-24 Championship. That’s pretty much the most he could have achieved at the King Power Stadium, but there were red flags flown regardless. The Foxes sprinted to 13 wins from their opening 14 games and were well on pace to break the division’s points record, only to slump throughout the winter and open up the title race to Ipswich and Leeds. The Italian was accused of being one-dimensional in his philosophy, and he frequently clashed with supporters over his patient style of football. Even though this didn’t really matter come the end of the season, it was probably as far away from rosy as it ought to have been for the Championship’s most-expensive squad. Defensive instability Maresca inherited a Chelsea team which shipped goals at an alarming rate last season (63 in 38 Premier League games, to be precise), but with one crucial difference – they had lost their only senior leader in Thiago Silva. The veteran Brazilian was on the decline, yet still proved a powerful voice in the dressing room and on the pitch. What was left for Maresca was an assortment of good-not-great options. Take Levi Colwill, for example. He’s only 21 and a full England international, another shining success of the Cobham academy system and someone who should be at Stamford Bridge for another decade. At this point, he’s only a decent defender, but one tasked with leading in central areas. Colwill forged a fine partnership with Wesley Fofana, but the Frenchman now faces months of the sidelines with another major injury. Even Fofana comes back, he sadly can’t be considered a reliable member of the first XI, such is his history on the treatment table. In his place has stepped summer signing Tosin Adarabioyo, who at 27 has taken on Silva’s role in the make-up of the squad and dressing room. The problem with that is he is nowhere near as good or experienced as his accomplished predecessor. Behind an ever-changing defence is Robert Sanchez, a goalkeeper who was quickly dropped by Pochettino last term yet has managed to claw his way back into the fold, with Filip Jorgensen unable to displace him since arriving from Villarreal. To add further sting, Chelsea’s BlueCo owners let the standout Premier League goalkeeper this season, Matz Sels of Nottingham Forest, walk away from sister club Strasbourg after six years with the French club to a divisional rival. A solid defence needs both quality and cohesion. Ultimately, Chelsea do not have enough of either to sustain a title push. Squad harmony at risk Having successfully and simply navigated the first phase of this season’s Conference League, Maresca was hailed for effectively dividing his huge squad into two teams; one for competing in the Premier League, and one for their European exploits. There was always a danger of this coming back to bite them though, and it will not be a sustainable plan for the rest of the season. It’s already been reported the likes of Christopher Nkunku, Joao Felix and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall aren’t too pleased with being stuck in the ‘B’ side and starting only intermittently against far lesser opposition. For whatever reason, Maresca still doesn’t trust most of this changed team in Premier League action. He has faced criticism for continually waiting until the very latter stages of games to turn to his bench and allowing his starting line up to become leggy, in turn giving the opposition a physical advantage in second halves. This vicious cycle is a major part of their recent downfall. Too long does Maresca wait to freshen things up, too late it is to stem the tide. The most notorious instance came in their Boxing Day defeat to Fulham. Chelsea cruised through the first half after Cole Palmer put them ahead,
One millionaire leaves Britain every 45 minutes under Labour
One millionaire left Britain every 45 minutes in the year Labour came to power, figures suggest. The UK lost 10,800 millionaires to overseas countries last year, more than double the number in 2023, according to new data. The wealth exodus equates to 30 millionaires leaving a day – approximately one every three quarters of an hour. It comes as Labour plans to abolish centuries-old tax laws that allow foreign investors to reside in Britain while sheltering offshore wealth from domestic taxes. Jason Hollands, managing director of financial advisers Evelyn Partners, said the crackdown made Britain appear “hostile to wealthy people”. “The signal it sends to people [is] that the country has a hostile attitude to wealthy people who will bring money into the UK. These people are highly portable and with a lot of digital businesses you can now work in lots of locations and you don’t necessarily have to be present in this jurisdiction,” he said. The number of high net-worth individuals – with liquid assets of more than $1m (£821,153) – leaving the country rose by 157pc in 2024, according to figures compiled by analytics firm, New World Wealth for advisors Henley & Partners. They showed more than 10,000 millionaires left last year, a significant rise on the previous year’s figures of just 4,300. It came in the year a snap election was called by Rishi Sunak that saw Labour come to power with a landslide victory. No other country except for China saw greater capital flight than the UK between January 2024 and December of 2024, according to the figures. Italy – which unveiled an attractive flat tax rate for non-doms in 2017 – was one of the most popular destinations for those leaving, along with Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, the United States and Singapore. New World Wealth said that 78 centi-millionaires, someone who has assets of 100 million, and 12 billionaires left the country last year. Prominent high net-worth people to have announced their departure from Britain recently include Pimlico Plumbers founder, Charlie Mullins, and Christian Angermayer, the German technology entrepreneur, who left Britain last year for Switzerland. Labour plans to scale back tax rules that allow wealthy individuals to reside in the UK without being liable for taxes on income and gains earned abroad. Figures published by His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) from 2023 show that there were 74,000 non-doms in the UK, with 37,800 of them having lived in the UK for at least seven years, and paid a £30,000 annual fee to shelter overseas wealth from domestic taxes. In April, a new regime – originally designed by former chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, and kept by the Labour government – will come into effect. The new scheme only gives new non-doms coming to Britain four years in which their foreign wealth is not subject to domestic taxes. After the period elapses, they will be expected to pay the same tax as an ordinary British taxpayer. Existing non-doms will be given a two-year transition period to the new scheme. Foreign earnings will also face the threat of inheritance tax. The tax raid is projected to generate £2.5bn a year for the next five years, according to figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Research by the Adam Smith Institute claimed in October that plans to abolish the non-dom tax status would wipe out 23,000 jobs over the next six years through lost investment and consumption. This would cost the UK economy £600m per year in lost GDP by 2030 and £1.3bn a year by 2035 – a cumulative loss of £6.52bn over the next decade — it was estimated. David Hawkins, of Foreign Investors for Britain, a group representing non-doms, told The Times the Government’s policy is “a monumental act of national self-harm”. He said: “It appears that decisions have been made not based on the evidence but based on ideology. It’s a real worry because more and more people are leaving. And it’s businesses, jobs, investment, spending into the economy and tax take and philanthropy that are hit.” A government spokesman said: “We are committed to tax reforms that are progressive and underpinned by fairness. It is right that those who can afford to, contribute their fair share to fix the foundations to provide stability and fund public services to drive growth. “The OBR expects the non-dom reforms to raise £33.8 billion over the next five years to help fund the investment projects needed to deliver on the Plan for Change and improve living standards across the country.” By Noah Eastwood
HISTORIC GAZA CEASEFIRE: Three released Israeli hostages return home
After a delay, the ceasefire in Gaza began at 10:15 am on Sunday. Three women, Emily Damari, Romi Gonen and Doron Steinbrecher, were the first hostages released as part of the ceasefire agreement, and were handed over via a Red Cross convoy. The three Israeli women hostages held by Hamas have now been handed over to Israeli authorities and are back inside Israel. After a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip came into effect on Sunday, January 19, the Israeli army confirmed that a Red Cross convoy sent to Gaza had brought the first Israeli hostages liberated as part of the agreement back into Israeli territory. Earlier in the day, Israel and Qatar had said the truce with Hamas began in Gaza at 10:15 am (9:15 GMT), nearly three hours after initially scheduled, following a last-minute delay on the orders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The announcement from Netanyahu’s office came after Hamas named the three female hostages it plans to release. “A short while ago, accompanied by (Israeli military and security agency) forces, the released hostages crossed the border into Israeli territory. The released hostages are currently on their way to an initial reception point in southern Israel, where they will undergo an initial medical assessment,” the military said in a statement. Military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised statement that the hostages were “in our hands and on their way home.” “Our hearts are now with all the hostages still being held in inhuman conditions, and we are awaiting their return,” he added. Moreover, a senior Hamas official told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that the Palestinian militant group had handed over three Israeli women hostages to the Red Cross, as agreed with Israel. “The three women hostages were officially handed over to the Red Cross at al-Saraya Square in the al-Rimal neighbourhood in western Gaza City,” the official said. “This occurred after a member of the Red Cross team met with them and ensured their well-being.” Israeli media are reporting that the army has asked the mothers of the three hostages to come to a meeting point at a base next to the Gaza border. In a statement reacting to the three hostages’ return, Netanyahu said they had endured a horrific ordeal. “I know, we all know, they have been through hell. They are emerging from darkness into light, from bondage to freedom,” Netanyahu said during a phone call with an Israeli official who was briefing him on the release of the three female hostages. Ceasefire delays On Sunday morning, a statement from Netanyahu’s office, issued less than an hour before the truce had been set to start at 8:30 am (6:30 am GMT), said he had “instructed the (Israeli army) that the ceasefire (…) will not begin until Israel has received the list” of hostages to be freed. During the delay, Gaza’s civil defence agency said Israeli strikes killed eight people. The ceasefire is set to pause the fighting after 15 months of war and see the release of dozens of hostages held by the militants in the Gaza Strip and hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Israel’s Cabinet approved the deal early on Saturday. Brokered by mediators the United States, Qatar and Egypt in months of indirect talks between the warring sides, the ceasefire is the second truce achieved in the devastating conflict. US President Joe Biden, whose administration has been heavily involved the mediation efforts, welcomed the ceasefire taking hold, saying that “after so much pain, death and loss of life, today the guns in Gaza have gone silent.” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the truce, saying on X “it is imperative that this ceasefire removes the significant security and political obstacles to delivering aid.” Pope Francis called, on Sunday, for the ceasefire in Gaza to be “immediately” respected as he thanked the mediators and urged a boost in humanitarian aid as well as the return of hostages. “I hope (…) it will be respected immediately by the parties,” Francis said at the end of the Angelus prayer, adding that he expressed “gratitude to the mediators” of the deal. Doron Steinbrecher, 31, British-Israeli Emily Damari, 28, and 24-year-old Romi Gonen, had been held by Hamas for the last 15 months. ‘Our beloved Dodo has finally returned to our arms’ – Steinbrecher family Doron (right) with her mother, Simona and her sister, Yamit Ashkenazi We’re now hearing from the family of 31-year-old veterinary nurse, Doron Steinbrecher, who was released from 15 months of captivity in Gaza earlier today. “After an unbearable 471 days, our beloved Dodo has finally returned to our arms,” the family say in a statement released by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters. “We want to express our heartfelt gratitude to everyone who supported and accompanied us along this journey.” “Our heroic Dodo, who survived 471 days in Hamas captivity, begins her rehabilitation journey today,” they add. “We will continue to stand with all the families and do everything in our power until all of their loved ones return home.” Emily Damari, 28, with her mother, Mandy Romi Gonen, 24 Doron Steinbrecher, 31 Released hostages heading for hospital treatment, says Israel The Israeli military has just said the three released hostages – Emily Damari, Doron Steinbrecher, and Romi Gonen – are now travelling to an Israeli hospital in a helicopter for treatment. The women are travelling with their mothers, and will be reunited with other family members at the hospital. The treatment was a planned part of their release from 15 months being held hostage in Gaza. ALL ABOUT THE RELEASE DEAL IN 1 MINUTE *Three Israeli women hostages held by Hamas have now been handed over to Israeli authorities and are back inside Israel. *Doron Steinbrecher, 31, Emily Damari, 28, and Romi Gonen, 24, have been brought to a facility for an initial medical check-up. *The transfer took place in western Gaza City between Red Cross workers and Hamas earlier this afternoon – it was
How Lagos’s nightlife lost its famous energy
Nigerian president’s economic shock therapy has gutted the middle class and the megacity’s festive party scene. “Detty December” is almost upon Lagos, but you would not know it from the atmosphere in bars and clubs throughout Nigeria’s largest city. Lagos’s world-famous nightlife reaches its raucous peak during the month, when festive abandon by locals coincides with an influx of foreign currency-carrying diasporans. “Detty” is a light-hearted alternative for “dirty” in Nigerian Pidgin. But the worst cost of living crisis in a generation, a product of radical economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, has gutted the west African country’s middle class — and sapped the energy from Lagos’s party spots. The crowd was thin on a recent “Taco Tuesday” at Bature Brewery, a cavernous open-air pub usually packed with professionals enjoying a cold drink after work in the sweltering megacity. A floor manager wistfully admitted to a drop-off in both visitor numbers and bill amounts as guests curb spending. Fintech operations manager Queen, 32, who declined to give her surname, said her days of impromptu splurges were gone. “You can’t even come out to have a drink,” she said. “Have you seen the cost of transport?” Reviewing Bature’s drinks menu — bottled water costs N1,000 ($0.60) while the most expensive cocktail costs N10,000 ($6.20) — she debated the best value cocktail with her friend before settling on a N8,000 mojito. The minimum wage in Nigeria is N70,000 a month. “I plan every outing these days,” Queen said. “I need to have an idea of the prices because I don’t want any surprises.” Across Lagos — an economic hub of 20mn people that is home to Afrobeats music and an often ostentatious party scene — bars, restaurants and clubs are feeling the pinch. And proprietors and punters are clear about the culprit. Since his election last year, Tinubu has embarked on a radical project of economic shock therapy, introducing dramatic reforms that he has said are designed to end the dysfunction that has long plagued Nigeria. The country of 220mn has fallen from being Africa’s largest economy to its fourth. Tinubu ended fuel subsidies, which for decades allowed Nigerians to pay some of the cheapest petrol prices in the world. The subsidies cull turbocharged inflation, which hit a nearly three-decade annual high of just under 34 per cent in October. The naira has also suffered, losing more than 70 per cent of its value against the US dollar following two devaluations. These measures have plunged many into poverty, but also destroyed the purchasing power of Nigeria’s professionals, its cohort of tech workers, business executives and engineers who were supposed to be the country’s growth engine. They were also the ones paying for the imported wine and lamb chops offered at swanky haunts in Lagos. The half-empty bars and restaurants are a far cry from the infectious energy that made Lagosian nightlife famous. The city gave rise to pioneering musicians, such as Fela Kuti in the 1970s, before Afrobeats superstars such as Davido and Burna Boy exploded on to the global scene. The chorus of “Lagos Party”, a 2009 R&B track by singer-turned-politician Banky W, captures the city’s self-confidence and swagger, boasting: “Ain’t no party like a Lagos party.” But these days those who can still afford to attend nightspots are less than enthusiastic about paying for the dull atmosphere they often encounter. Babajide Duroshola, a tech executive who took colleagues visiting from overseas out in Lagos recently, said they went to a popular nightclub and found it so empty they decided to go elsewhere. “The manager ran after us to ask why we were leaving,” said Duroshola. “This was a place you had to call them before going previously . . . it’s only the strongest that go out now.” Nahi Halabi, an entrepreneur who runs several high-end restaurants in Lagos’s business district of Victoria Island, said companies were caught between boosting prices in response to inflation and the weakening currency while still keeping meals affordable enough to attract customers. He added that his restaurants faced three cost issues: paying for imported inventory, such as tomatoes and Australian steak, invoiced in dollars with a slumping currency; increased energy costs in a country with unreliable electricity; and raising salaries as inflation saps staff morale. Halabi said there had been a clear change in consumer behaviour among his regulars, from customers opting for a glass of wine instead of their usual bottle to those ordering chicken instead of steak — a whole roast chicken for up to three people costs N59,200 while a rib-eye steak costs N96,000. “People no longer have money to go out for lunch or dinner the way they used to,” Halabi said over coffee at one of his venues, the brasserie Slow. “And we can’t just increase our prices . . . We’re playing catch-up.” Not being able to dine out or party is a problem many Lagosians would be happy to have. “Tinubunomics”, as it has been dubbed, has left many Nigerians so poor that they struggle to eat three meals a day. Almost two-thirds of households report being unable to eat “healthy, nutritious or preferred foods” in the past month, according to a report by the statistics agency — up nearly 80 per cent compared with five years ago. Tinubu has said his reforms will encourage investment and ultimately deliver economic growth. Fuel subsidies had risen above $10bn annually, higher than the budgets for health and education. Dumebi Oluwole, senior economist at Lagos-based data firm Stears, said the reforms were the “foundation” for rebooting the economy but more work was still required. “Long-term success is dependent on government spending priorities . . . Fiscal authorities now need to do the right thing.” For now, the hospitality industry is still hoping that “Detty December” will change their fortunes. But even a turnaround in festive spending will only offer short-term respite as budget-conscious locals make up a large chunk of their clientele and they are turning to pocket-friendly alternatives such as house parties and
What the Israel-Hamas ceasefire means for the world
It is not yet clear that the Gaza ceasefire will even come into force. But, if the war is indeed ending, what has it meant for the world? For Israel, the impact seems double-edged. The country’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, can argue that he has turned a national tragedy into a strategic victory. Hamas has been devastated, if not entirely destroyed. Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant group that was the most heavily armed and threatening part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, has also been debilitated. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct fire. But most of Iran’s missiles failed to get through the defences of Israel and its allies — and the Islamic republic looks in a weaker position than for many decades. On the strategic level, Israel is emerging from this conflict as the superpower of the Middle East — with its military deterrence fully restored and its enemies in disarray. But set against that, Israel has suffered enormous reputational damage. Some 46,000 people are believed to have been killed during Israel’s offensive and Gaza lies in ruins. Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges — which places him in the same legal bracket as Vladimir Putin. Like the Russian leader, Netanyahu will now find it much harder to travel internationally. Israel’s popularity has plummeted in international opinion polls. Young people — even in the US — are now much more hostile to the country. A Pew survey in April concluded that: “Younger Americans are more likely to sympathise with the Palestinian people than the Israeli people.” A third of adults under 30 said their sympathies lay either entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people, compared with 14 per cent siding with Israel. The Israelis can hope that opinions will soften over time — particularly if peace is restored. Netanyahu and his allies also believe that friends in the White House will matter much more than enemies on American campuses. But Trump’s friendship may not be unconditional. There is a palpable shock on the Israeli far right that the incoming US administration has put its weight behind a ceasefire and hostage-release deal that was negotiated by the Biden White House. Hopes in Israel that Trump would give it a completely free hand to deal with the Palestinians, as it sees fit, have taken a knock. Trump’s decision to press hard for peace now may reflect two main factors. The first is his desire to take credit for a deal and hostage releases. The second is that — while Israel enjoys ardent support on the Republican right — it is not the only important country in the region. During his first presidency, Trump’s first trip overseas was to Saudi Arabia. The incoming Trump administration is now likely to push for the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia — which was also a major goal of the Biden administration. Potentially, this offers a scintilla of hope to the Palestinians, since it is widely believed that the Saudi price for normalisation would be tangible progress towards a Palestinian state. However, that might well be a price that the Israelis are unwilling to pay, which could mean that the Saudi-Israel deal remains a mirage. The war in Gaza has also had a global, as well as a regional significance. One of the reasons that the US and its western allies have been reluctant to put too much pressure on Israel is their belief that Iran is a common enemy. Over the past year, western officials have spoken increasingly frequently about their belief that they are now waging a global struggle against a loose “axis of adversaries” made up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. By weakening Iran, Israel has also weakened that axis. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was, in large part, a knock-on effect of Israel’s devastating assault on Hizbollah, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad. The collapse of Assad’s power was, in turn, a significant blow for both Iran and Russia, which had intervened militarily on his behalf. Russia was using Syria as a base for power projection and now has to step back. Paradoxically, Israel itself has had a much more cautious response to the fall of Assad than many in the west, fearing that jihadist forces will move into the power vacuum in Syria. A final casualty of the Gaza war has been the “international rules-based order” promoted by the Biden administration. Sympathy and support for Israel after the October 7 attacks led the US to tolerate frequent violations of international humanitarian law during Israel’s onslaught on Gaza. Putting the rules-based order back together again could be just as hard as the physical reconstruction of Gaza. By Gideon Rachman
Colombian drug gang violence kills 60 people
The death toll from attacks by a rebel group in Colombia’s Catatumbo region has risen to 60, the country’s human rights office has said. Rival factions have been vying for control of the cocaine trade in the region – which sits near the border with Venezuela – for years. The Ombudsman’s Office said the latest violence involved the National Liberation Army (ELN) – the largest armed group still active in Colombia – and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which signed a peace treaty with the state in 2016. The attacks broke an uneasy truce between the guerrilla groups, which had been in peace negotiations with the government. The Ombudsman’s Office, a government agency that oversees the protection of citizens’ human and civil rights, previously reported that 40 had died in the violence. It said that many people, including community leaders and their families, were facing a “special risk” of being kidnapped or killed at the hands of the ELN. It noted that 20 people had recently been kidnapped, half of whom were women. The office said that among those killed were seven peace treaty signatories and Carmelo Guerrero, the leader of the Association for Peasant Unity in Catatumbo (Asuncat), a local advocacy group. Asuncat wrote on social media on Friday that Roger Quintero and Freiman Velasquez, members of its board of directors, had not been seen since the previous day, and that it suspected armed groups had taken them. “In some communities in the region, food shortages are beginning to be reported, affecting local communities,” the Ombudsman’s Office wrote in a statement on Saturday, adding that thousands of people are believed to have been displaced by the violence. “Elderly people, children, adolescents, pregnant women and people with disabilities are suffering the consequences of these events.” “Catatumbo is once again stained with blood,” the Association of Mothers of Catatumbo for Peace wrote on Friday. “The bullets exchanged not only hurt those who hold the weapons, but also tear apart the dreams of our communities, break up families and sow terror in the hears of our children.” The Ombudsman’s Office appeared to lay the blame for the latest violence on the ELN, which had been in peace talks with the Colombian government until they were suspended on Friday due to the violence in Catatumbo. President Gustavo Petro – who since his election in 2022 has sought to end violence between armed groups in the country – accused the ELN of “war crimes” and said the group “shows no willingness to make peace.” The ELN accused Farc of having initiated the conflict by killing civilians in a statement on Saturday, according to Reuters news agency. Farc has not publicly responded to the allegation. On Saturday, the Colombian army announced it was sending additional troops to the region in an effort to restore peace.
The consensus on a strong dollar may be too complacent
One common thread running through the 2025 year ahead outlooks from banks and asset managers was a near-consensus view that the dollar would strengthen further in the coming 12 months. Like much else in the incoming Trump administration’s agenda, the talk around the value of the greenback has been at times contradictory. Donald Trump himself, together with many of his key trade policy advisers, has long argued that a strong dollar has made American exports pricey, encouraged imports and cost American manufacturing jobs. Others appointed to key jobs, though, such as Scott Bessent, nominated for the post of Treasury Secretary, have publicly taken a more traditional stance and supported a strong dollar. Whatever the new administration might desire, the markets seem reasonably certain that the result will be a stronger dollar rather than a weaker one. The dollar has risen by around 8 per cent since late September when investors began to price in a rising likelihood of a Trump victory in November. A stronger dollar has been a key component of the Trump trade which gripped Wall Street last year. Broadly put, the Trump trade is an assumption that the new president will follow through on all the aspects of his agenda which markets approve of, while being restrained by his wider party from anything they are less keen on. Tax cuts and deregulation will boost profits and equity market returns while the resulting higher deficits will be bad, but not disastrous, for US Treasuries. Markets expect the yield on American government bonds to rise relative to a no-Trump counterfactual but implicitly assume that the rise will not be enough to rattle the stock market. A rising interest rate differential with other advanced economies though will, by the logic of the Trump trade, be enough to push the dollar higher. The threat of higher tariffs, which would result in fewer dollars leaving America, has added to the dollar’s lustre since November. The consensus view, then, is that the dollar will remain strong even if the new president occasionally takes to social media to loudly groan about it. There are, though, at least three reasons to worry that this consensus is complacent. Tariffs are the first. Economic theory suggests that in the short-run new tariffs can indeed lead to a strengthening currency. The currency of the trading partner subject to new restrictions often depreciates to offset, at least partially, the value of the tariffs. This was broadly the case with China’s renminbi in 2018-19. But in the longer run tariffs are associated with fewer imports and exports and an overall weaker economy. That weakness eventually leads to lower interest rates and hence a weaker currency. Tariffs might give the dollar a short-term fillip but weaken it in the medium to longer run. Secondly, it is worth taking seriously the notion that when Trump says he wants a weaker dollar, he actually means it. The threat of much higher tariffs on America’s major trading partners could well prove to be merely the opening gambit in an attempt to corral those trading partners into some form of multilateral agreement to lower the dollar’s value. There can be little doubt that the author of The Art of The Deal would not delight in hosting a summit at Mar-a-Lago to preside over negotiations. Of course, the mechanics of such a deal would prove tricky. The Plaza Accord of 1985, at which the finance ministers of the US, the UK, West Germany, France and Japan met to discuss international exchange rates, is sometimes held up as a model. But the world economy is a very different place nowadays. The five participants 40 years ago represented around 45 per cent of global GDP, at purchasing power parity, between them compared with more like 25 per cent today. The other major threat to the dollar’s value can be found outside the traditional realm of economic policy. Work by the economists Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl and Livia Chitu in 2017 examined the geopolitical underpinnings of international currency values. In general, countries hold a greater share of their reserves in the currency of a country providing them with a security guarantee. By this argument the US’s provision of security to its allies helps to hold up the value of the dollar and keeps US borrowing costs lower than they would otherwise be. If those security guarantees start to be unwound, then the dollar’s share in international reserves could begin to fall, providing a further headwind. The dollar has had a strong run since September. By Duncan Weldon Read Also:IMF warns Trump’s economic plans could trigger inflation in US Read Also:DONE DEAL: Israel to free 737 Palestinian prisoners on Sunday
Niger tanker explosion: Peter Obi seeks stricter safety measures as 86 bodies buried
Former governor of Anambra State and presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the last election, Peter Obi has called for implementation of measures that would end the recurring tanker explosion on the country. Obi made the call in a statement on Sunday while reacting to the recent tragic incident along Dikko-Maje Road in the Suleja Local Government Area of Niger State, where several lives were lost on Saturday. NEW DAILY PRIME earlier reported that over 80 people were feared dead in an explosion which occurred along Dikko-Maje Road in the Suleja Local Government Area of Niger State Niger State on Saturday, January 18, 2025. In a fresh update, the death toll rose to 86 and over 50 residents who sustained varying degrees of burns and were rushed to different hospitals for treatment. Speaking on Sunday, Abdullahi Baba Arah, Director General of the Niger State Emergency Management Agency (NSEMA), revealed that 80 victims were buried in a mass grave located at the Dikko Primary Health Care premises, while five bodies were claimed by relatives for private burial. One victim succumbed to injuries at the healthcare centre. The mass burial, organized by NSEMA in collaboration with Gurara local government officials and community volunteers, commenced at 5 p.m. and lasted until midnight. Arah confirmed that 55 people sustained injuries in the explosion and are currently receiving medical care The tragic incident occurred when a fuel tanker traveling from Kaduna to Gwagwalada overturned at the junction, spilling its contents. Despite warnings to keep a safe distance, many residents gathered to scoop fuel from the site. The tanker exploded, resulting in catastrophic loss of life, severe injuries, and the destruction of property worth millions of naira. Reacting to the incident, the former Governor of Anambra commiserated with victims families , saying there is a need for a stricter safety measures to address tanker explosion and similar incidents. He tweeted: “The tragic petrol tanker explosion that occurred along Dikko-Maje Road in the Suleja Local Government Area of Niger State yesterday is truly heartbreaking. Reports indicate that over 70 lives were lost, while more than 50 people were injured in the incident. “These accidents, which have sadly become increasingly recurrent in recent times, highlight the urgent need for the implementation of stricter safety measures to address the dangers of tanker explosions and similar incidents, which often result in colossal disasters. “I sincerely commiserate with the families who lost their loved ones in the tragedy. I also extend my condolences to the Government and people of Niger State over this devastating incident. May God grant them, and all of us, the fortitude to bear this loss, eternal rest to the departed, and a swift recovery to the injured.”
Brighton humiliate shambolic Manchester United at Old Trafford
Old Trafford, an hitherto dreaded place for visiting teams, is steadilly becoming a slaughter ground for hapless Amorim’s boys It was another nightmarish showing for Manchester United at Old Trafford as Brighton delivered a crushing 3-1 defeat on Sunday, exposing the Red Devils’ mounting Premier League troubles. United’s misery began early when Yankuba Minteh opened the scoring for Brighton in the fifth minute. Capitalising on a precision pass from Kaoru Mitoma, Minteh slotted the ball neatly past Andre Onana to stun the home crowd. Though United’s talisman, Bruno Fernandes, restored parity from the penalty spot in the 23rd minute, the team struggled to assert dominance. The glimmers of hope were extinguished in the second half, with Brighton ruthlessly exploiting United’s defensive frailties. Joao Pedro reclaimed the lead for Brighton in the 53rd minute, seizing on a rebound and calmly dispatching it into the net. The nail in United’s coffin came in the 76th minute when Georginio Rutter pounced on a calamitous error by Onana, leaving the goalkeeper helpless as Brighton extended their lead. The hosts floundered in their attempts to respond, squandering crucial chances. Alejandro Garnacho, introduced as a substitute, sent a shot skyward from a prime position, epitomising United’s lacklustre display. Meanwhile, Harry Maguire’s frustrations boiled over, earning him a yellow card in the closing minutes as Brighton outclassed United in every department. Brighton’s disciplined approach stifled United’s attack, and their well-orchestrated substitutions ensured a commanding finish to the game. The Seagulls soared with clinical precision, leaving United reeling from yet another setback in their faltering season. For manager Ruben Amorim, the loss raises serious questions about the team’s strategy and discipline, as Old Trafford bore witness to boos and disappointment from the home faithful.
Fubara vows to protect PDP’s integrity in Rivers
Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara has pledged to uphold the integrity and dominance of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. Speaking on Sunday during a courtesy visit by the PDP Youth Leaders Forum to the Government House, Fubara reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening the party and preserving its core values. The governor highlighted the significance of loyalty, unity, and resilience in sustaining the party’s relevance, stating, “We are doing everything possible to keep the true essence of the PDP alive. We are not compromised—we are the authentic PDP, and we will remain steadfast.” Addressing challenges within the party, Fubara acknowledged that some decisions taken in the interest of good governance may have been misinterpreted but emphasized their necessity. “At times, our loyalty has been questioned, but difficult situations often demand difficult choices. Regardless, our commitment to the PDP remains unwavering. Our goal is to ensure progress and stability within our administration.” READ ALSO: Rivers political crisis divinely purposed – Fubara Fubara urged collective action to resolve internal party issues and promote national unity, underscoring the importance of preserving Nigeria’s stability. “It is imperative to keep this house standing, as without it, there is nothing left to build upon,” he remarked. The governor commended the PDP Youth Leaders Forum for their dedication and highlighted the vital role of young leaders in revitalizing the party. He assured them of his administration’s full support, saying, “Your mission is not easy, but we will stand by you to ensure your success.” Fubara also called on party members to set aside ethnic and religious divisions, urging them to work together for the progress of the PDP and the nation. In his response, Jamilu Kalshingi, Chairman of the PDP Youth Leaders Forum, lauded Governor Fubara’s unwavering dedication to preserving the party’s unity and integrity. He expressed satisfaction with recent court rulings affirming the election of local government chairmen in Rivers State and nullifying the PDP congresses. “These victories go beyond Rivers State—they are triumphs for Nigeria, for the youths, and for the PDP as a whole,” Kalshingi said. READ ALSO: Shettima departs Abuja for Switzerland He praised the governor’s tireless efforts to protect the party, describing them as selfless and focused on securing a better future for Nigerians. Kalshingi assured Governor Fubara of the forum’s full support in the ongoing push to restore the PDP’s strength, commending his exemplary leadership in overcoming political challenges. The Forum’s Secretary, Brown Odey, also praised Fubara’s transformative governance, noting its positive impact on Nigerian youths. He called for equitable operations within the PDP across all states and commended the recognition of Governor Fubara as the leader of the party in Rivers State by the newly constituted Acting Executive Committee.
